588 
FXUS64 KLZK 150819
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
319 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Monday Night

Upper trough making slow progress east this morning toward the 
Midwest and Great Lakes region. Surface low out ahead of it 
advancing east as well, but greatly enhancing the pressure 
gradient locally. Some wrap around moisture will continue to bring
clouds to much of northern and western Arkansas through mid day 
before slowly eroding. Winds will remain elevated out of the W-NW
today before the surface low can shift far enough away to help
winds at the surface relax. Much colder air is being brought into
the state from the steep N-NW flow on the backside of the trough,
with early morning temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s
creeping into NW AR. Through daybreak, northwest portions of the 
forecast area may dip down to or below freezing for a few hours. 
Temperatures through the afternoon will struggle to warm much,
with readings expected to be some 15 to 20 degrees below normal 
across the state and could approach some record coolest high 
temperatures in spots.

Surface high pressure will finally be able to make progress toward 
the state from the Northern Plains late Sunday into Monday morning. 
With the flow aloft helping to pump cool air into the area and 
ridging briefly in place at the surface, helping to lighten winds, 
at or below freezing temperatures are expected Sunday night into 
Monday morning across much of western and northern portions of the 
state. While freezing temperatures aren't unheard of this time of
year across Arkansas, some low temperature records may be in 
jeopardy. 

Surface winds will be quite a bit lighter on Monday and high 
pressure will begin to shift southeast away from the area. A new 
surface low will begin to take shape ahead of an approaching 
trough making its way across the western US. This will bring winds
around out of the southwest and help moderate temperatures Monday
night.


&&

.LONG TERM...Tuesday Through Saturday

The extended forecast will be overall dry to start, then a weather 
system will affect the region on Friday to Saturday. Temperatures 
will be warmest to start, then a weak cold front is forecast to move 
through the region mid-week, bring a slight chance of light 
convection with it, as well as cooling temperatures a bit the rest 
of the week to the weekend. 

The pattern will start with upper level high pressure ridging over 
the region, with the surface high pressure just to the east. A dry 
day with warming temperatures will be seen Monday and Tuesday. 
Models then show a weather system moving across the central to upper 
Plains, while a weak cold front moves through AR. Only a low chance 
of any rain is expected and mainly over southern parts of Arkansas. 
That system moves quickly east and surface high pressure and upper 
level ridging returns to the region with dry weather and a warming 
trend to Friday. Then a better weather system on Friday and into the 
weekend will which will bring better chances for convection. 


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     51  32  61  43 /   0   0   0   0 
Camden AR         57  34  68  48 /   0   0   0   0 
Harrison AR       44  28  59  41 /   0   0   0   0 
Hot Springs AR    54  34  66  47 /   0   0   0   0 
Little Rock   AR  52  35  64  47 /   0   0   0   0 
Monticello AR     54  37  64  47 /   0   0   0   0 
Mount Ida AR      54  32  66  48 /   0   0   0   0 
Mountain Home AR  46  29  59  40 /   0   0   0   0 
Newport AR        51  33  59  43 /   0   0   0   0 
Pine Bluff AR     53  35  63  46 /   0   0   0   0 
Russellville AR   52  32  63  45 /   0   0   0   0 
Searcy AR         52  33  61  43 /   0   0   0   0 
Stuttgart AR      52  35  61  47 /   0   0   0   0 
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday FOR 
Baxter-Boone-Cleburne-Conway-Faulkner-Fulton-Independence-Izard-
Johnson-Logan-Marion-Montgomery-Newton-Polk-Pope-Scott-Searcy-
Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Yell.


Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR Boone-Johnson-
Marion-Newton-Searcy.

&&

$$

Short Term...67 / Long Term...59