905 
FXUS62 KMHX 101116
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
716 AM EDT Tue Apr 10 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will pass offshore today. High pressure will build
in from the west Wednesday, moving off the coast Thursday. A 
cold front will approach from the west late this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 630 AM Tues...Drizzle has recently decreased in coverage,
but is still fairly widespread east of US 17. Radar returns farther
west don't appear to be reaching the ground yet, as the mid 
levels are very dry. Later this morning though, it appears this
area of rain showers will move over Onslow and Carteret 
counties. Overall, have categorical to likely PoPs slowly 
trending down from NW to SE during the morning hours. As low 
pressure slowly moves away, conditions will begin to dry out, 
but scattered showers will remain along the coast through a good
portion of the afternoon. Clearing is likely over the coastal 
plain in the afternoon, and across the coast by evening. 
Temperatures are currently in the low to mid 40s inland, and the
upper 40s to low 50s near the coast. High temps today will be 
below average again, only reaching the upper 50s to low 60s, but
only the low 50s on the Outer Banks as a stiff north wind blows
cooler air off the cold ocean.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 325 AM Tues...Dry conditions are expected tonight as high
pressure builds in. Temperatures will fall into the upper 30s 
inland and low to mid 40s near the coast, thanks to mostly 
clear skies and light winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 240 AM Tue...High pressure moves overhead Wednesday, and 
conditions will dry out, although it will still be unseasonably 
cool. A warming trend begins on Thursday as high pressure slides
offshore, and provides drier, warmer weather for the rest of 
the week. A cold front will bring shower and perhaps some 
thunderstorms on Sunday into Mon.

Wednesday and Wed night...Cool high pressure will quickly move 
in and provide dry weather for Wednesday. Under mostly sunny 
skies highs will reach the upper 50s nrn coast to low/mid 60s 
inland. Good radiational cooling Wed night with lows around 40 
cooler inland spots to 40s coast. 

Thursday through Saturday...Fantastic weather is expected for 
the rest of the week, as high pressure moves off the coast early
Thursday, and anchors there through the weekend. Temperatures 
on Thursday will rebound to around early April averages, with 
highs in the low to mid 70s. Thicknesses continue to build 
Friday and Saturday, and will allow temperatures to warm into 
the upper 70s to low 80s both days. The exception to these warm 
temps will be along the immediate coast, especially the Outer 
Banks, where temps will remain ocean/sound cooled, and mostly in
the 60s for highs. Low temps will be milder Friday and Saturday
mornings, ranging from the low 50s inland to the upper 50s/low 
60s near the coast.

Sunday and Monday...A slow moving, strong front will approach 
the region on Sunday and most models show it crossing Sunday 
night into Monday. Scattered to numerous showers are expected 
to break out ahead of the front later Sunday and cont thru Sun
night. Given still some uncertainty on timing will keep pops at
high chc. Some thunderstorms will be possible Sunday into Sunday
night as moisture/dewpoints increase. Lingering shra early Mon 
shld end behind the front. Highs Sun will again reach around 80
inland then cool into the mid/upr 60s Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term /through Wednesday Morning/
As of 715 AM Tues...VFR conditions have recently returned for
all locations except the immediate coast. This includes the 4
TAF sites, KOAJ, KISO, KEWN, and KPGV. VFR or MVFR conditions 
are likely by mid to late morning as more rain showers will move
through the airspace, and then VFR conditions will return for 
all during the afternoon. Mostly clear skies are likely by 
Tuesday evening under light winds. wed

Long Term /Wed through Sat/...
As of 240 AM Tue...VFR conditions are expected thru the period 
as high pres crosses Wed and remains offshore thru Sat with no 
precip expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Tonight/...
As of 325 AM Tues...Small craft conditions are expected for most
of the short term for the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound.
Winds currently N 10-20 kts will strengthen this morning to
15-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts through tonight. Seas are
currently 5-9 ft across the coastal waters, and are expected to
increase today in response to stronger winds. Seas are expected
to peak 6-10 ft, and will remain elevated through tonight.

Long Term /Wed through Saturday/... 
As of 240 AM Tue...N winds 15 to 20 kts early Wed will become NE
and diminish to mainly 10 kts or less late. Seas of 4 to 6 feet
(highest outer central/srn wtrs) early Wed will subside to 3 to
5 feet. As the high shifts off the coast Wed night and Thu 
expect light winds to become SW 10 to 15 kts. Seas will subside
to 2 to 4 feet thru Thu. Sw winds will cont Fri and Sat at 10 
to 20 kts higher in aftn and evening. Seas will be mainly 2 to 
4 feet with poss some 5 footer outer waters Sat.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SGK
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...RF/SGK
AVIATION...RF/SGK
MARINE...RF/SGK