004 
FXUS64 KLUB 040446
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1146 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

.AVIATION...
VFR next 24 hours.  Wind will slowly veer this morning becoming 
established from a southerly direction and increasing by late this
morning.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 312 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018/ 

DISCUSSION...
Gusty northeast winds will taper early this evening as cool
surface ridge noses southward - centered over the area early 
Wednesday with light winds and dry air setting the stage for a 
chilly morning near freezing or below most areas on the Caprock. 
Not issuing a freeze advisory or warning due to being yet well 
within the window (near to two weeks from now) for the average 
last Spring freeze on the Caprock. Flow aloft will remain west- 
northwest so a quick turnaround to southerly and southwesterly 
flow will occur by late Wednesday, but will remain below normal 
temperatures. Thursday will see solid warmup into the lower 80s 
but surface gradient may relax slightly with upper ridge crossing 
the Rockies. A cold front will ooze into the area briefly probably
late Friday and early Saturday - has slowed from previous runs 
allowing better warming Friday but still a cold morning early 
Saturday - before some recovery Saturday. So, several days of up 
and down temperatures and winds expected. 

Biggest event this forecast still is potential for a very windy
and dusty warm day Sunday as a potent upper low crosses the
Rockies into the northern plains. Strong wind flow aloft will pass
over the Panhandle/South Plains Sunday - current timing is on
track for daytime wind maximum. Will continue to highlight
potential for wind and fire weather concerns in the Hazardous
Weather Outlook. Cold front will follow early Monday, then heights
aloft look to relax Tuesday with approaching ridge axis. RMcQueen

FIRE WEATHER...
Winds relaxing late this afternoon easing elevated fire weather
threat. Surface pressures will lower again Wednesday afternoon
with breezy conditions - perhaps elevated or low-end critical fire
weather developing across the extreme southern panhandle and parts
of the western South Plains - but RFTI looks too low to issue a
Fire Weather Watch. Off and on breezes possible Thursday, Friday,
and Saturday - each which could at least lead to elevated if not
locally critical conditions. Strongest indications for a critical
fire weather event are for Sunday, as strong winds aloft will
overlay what appears will be a very dry airmass over the area with
warm temperatures. RMcQueen

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

26/99/99