325 
FXUS61 KBGM 272002
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
402 PM EDT Tue Mar 27 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Occasional light rain is expected through tonight as a front 
moves across the region. Spotty light freezing rain may occur 
in the Catskills. The rain will end Wednesday morning as brief 
high pressure builds over the area. The next period of rain 
will be Thursday into Thursday night as a system moves through
the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At 4 PM, local radars show light rain making it as far east as 
I81. This area of light rain will continue moving into the 
western Catskills during the late afternoon/early evening. This
is associated with an area of isentropic lift with the best 
forcing expected through early evening. Later tonight deep 
moisture and weak lift from an approaching frontal boundary will
keep areas of light rain persisting. Surface temperatures 
overnight in parts of Delaware and Sullivan Counties will hover
around the freezing mark. Included chance of freezing rain here
but not expecting much impact if any due to marginal 
temperatures. Overnight lows will range in the lower to middle
30s.

The rain will move out Wednesday morning with high pressure 
briefly building over the region. Model soundings show low 
level moisture trapped under an inversion so cloudy to mostly 
cloudy skies will continue. Highs will range in the middle to
upper 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
During this period another low pressure system will track along
a stalled boundary in the Ohio/Tennessee valleys and lift  
northeast across the local area and into eastern Canada. The 
GFS/ECMWF is slower than the NAM, and generally followed. Rain
will develop on Thursday and continue through Thursday night 
before diminishing Friday morning. For now hydro concerns are
minimal based on amount of rainfall expected. 

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
4 am update...
Not much change with poor model agreement. A zonal flow aloft
will keep the pattern active. Friday rain tries to move out as a
cold front exits but waves move northeast keeping showers
around. At the same time another low and front comes in from 
the west. Low temperatures of 25 to 35 cold enough at night and
during the morning for a mix of rain and snow. Highs in the 40s
changes it all back to rain in the afternoons. Much uncertainty
on the timing of the individual systems. could be breaks in the
showers that last half a day. 

previous discussion...
Friday through Saturday night models continue to show 
significant run to run variability and little agreement among 
themselves. The GFS continues with a storm tracking from the 
upper midwest into the western Great Lakes region and into 
eastern Canada while the ECMWF which had a more eastward 
tracking system now indicating a much weaker system well to our 
south then a storm not impacting the local area until Monday. 
Will continue to use WPC/Superblend guidance which gives chance 
pops Friday through Saturday night. Precipitation type would be 
primarily rain except for rain/snow mix late Friday night/early 
Saturday mornirng then primarily snow showers Saturday night. 
Sunday could be primarily dry with just some sprinkles or 
flurries during the morning. Back to chance pops on Monday with 
fast zonal flow. Very little confidence during this entire 
period.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Light rain will overspread the terminals this afternoon with
conditions deteriorating into the Alternate Required category by
late afternoon/early evening. Overnight, continued light rain
and weak mixing will lead to IFR conditions due to ceilings 
except for KAVP. KBGM may drop to Alternate Mins. The rain will
end by sunrise but moisture trapped under an inversion will lead
to slow improvement. Between 12Z-15Z, improvement to Alternate 
Required is expected.

Winds S/SE at 10 to 15 knots with gusts around  25 kt at times 
through the early evening hours. Winds becoming light overnight
and continuing into Wednesday. 


Outlook... 

Wednesday night through Saturday...Intermittent rain showers 
and restrictions, as slow frontal zone drifts over the region. 
Another shot of rain is expected Thursday into Friday with 
quiet weather on Saturday.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...RRM