996 
FXUS61 KBGM 270532
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
132 AM EDT Tue Mar 27 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will control our weather through Tuesday morning.
A storm moving into the Great Lakes will spread rain showers 
into NY and PA late Tuesday, while a second storm is forecast to
affect our region this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
High pressure will keep fair weather over the region through 
Tuesday afternoon, before a frontal system sliding into the 
Great Lakes brings increasing clouds and rain showers to the 
region.

The atmosphere will decouple tonight, allowing temperatures to
drop into the 20's, even as warm air advection begins aloft. We
did raise temperatures a couple of degrees with the evening
update based on the latest observations but we are still on
track for those 20's overnight. 


Tuesday's temperatures will be largely dependent on cloud cover.
If the clouds hold off longer than expected, middle to upper-40s
will result. For now, we expect thickening clouds will suppress
temperatures between 40 and 45 degrees. It looks like the
leading edge of high cirrus should make it in during the pre-
dawn hours with lower clouds by this afternoon. 

Rain showers are forecast to come in like a wall late Tuesday,
with thick, low clouds. Wit a very dry airmass, temperatures
will wet bulb down quite a bit when the precipitation starts.
While all places should start as rain in the afternoon a change
to freezing rain can not be ruled out in spots by the evening
particularly east of Binghamton. The initial dry airmass may
allow for a few sleet pellets as well to mix in before the
change to rain and freezing rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
The main concern this forecast period is for Tuesday night
through the early morning hours on Wednesday, when warm air 
aloft combined with cold air at the surface will bring the 
threat for freezing rain centered over our far eastern counties
Delaware, Otsego, Oneida and Sullivan. Right now any icing 
accumulation looks to be under a tenth of an inch and confined 
to elevated or exposed surfaces.


The good news is the GFS model has trended toward warmer 12z
Wednesday temperatures for three consecutive runs. Should this
trend continue, the freezing rain threat will diminish. However,
the NAM and the SPC HREF continue to show a freezing rain 
possibility.

Elsewhere, all rain is expected through Wednesday. Temperatures
will climb to between 45 and 50 degrees in increasing warm air 
advection.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Wednesday Night, weak surface low lifts east of region during
the evening hours. Models continue to show timing differences
with this feature so will carry low chance pops through the
overnight period for light rain showers.

Thursday through Thursday night low pressure will track from 
the Ohio Valley northeast across western New York and into 
southern Quebec. Will increase pops Thursday afternoon into the
high chance category with likely pops Thursday night as trailing
cold front moves through the region. The rain may mix with snow 
in the higher elevations of Steuben and Oneida counties toward 
daybreak. 

Friday through Saturday night models continue to show
significant run to run variability and little agreement among 
themselves. The GFS continues with a storm tracking from the 
upper midwest into the western Great Lakes region and into 
eastern Canada while the ECMWF which had a more eastward 
tracking system now indicating a much weaker system well to our
south then a storm not impacting the local area until Monday.
Will continue to use WPC/Superblend guidance which gives chance
pops Friday through Saturday night. Precipitation type would be
primarily rain except for rain/snow mix late Friday night/early
Saturday mornirng then primarily snow showers Saturday night. 
Sunday could be primarily dry with just some sprinkles or 
flurries during the morning. Back to chance pops on Monday with 
fast zonal flow. Very little confidence during this entire 
period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR will continue through most of the day today. 

Late this afternoon into the early evening (from about 21z to 
00z Wed), lower clouds and rain will quickly spread across 
CNY/NEPA from west to east. Expecting MVFR- fuel alternate 
restrictions for most locations with IFR vsbys and/or cigs at 
KRME, KITH, KELM and KBGM.

There is also the possibility for a period of sleet at KRME, so
added a mention of -RAPL between 02-06Z. KBGM may also see some
light frozen precip, but confidence is not high enough at this
point to mention in TAF.

Winds will increase out of the S/SE later this morning and gust
20 to 25 kt at times through the early evening hours.

Outlook... 

Late Tuesday night through Friday...Intermittent rain showers 
and restrictions, as slow frontal zone drifts over the region. 
Rain may initially be mixed with sleet/freezing rain early 
Wednesday. Rain may mix with or change to snow Friday night into
Saturday.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/MWG
SHORT TERM...DJP/MWG
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...BJT/MLJ