773 
FXUS63 KTOP 241958
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
258 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

The upper low center is currently centered over Iowa this afternoon. 
The associated low stratus downstream of the wave has resulted in a 
blustery, cool afternoon over northeast Kansas. While clouds may 
attempt to break towards the Emporia area by late afternoon, the 
stratus is expected to fill back in overnight as the system exits 
eastward and ridging amplifies across the central plains. Low level 
flow veers towards the southwest after midnight as a poignant 
shortwave trough deepens over the west coast. A weak embedded vort 
max quickly lifts northeast through the mean flow towards central 
Kansas by Sunday morning. Forecast soundings have limited moisture 
to work with as much of the isentropic ascent is below 875 mb so 
confidence is not high for widespread precip to occur through Sunday 
morning. We are still not anticipating frozen precip in north 
central areas with all high resolution guidance depicting temps in 
the middle 30s by the onset. Have a slight chance for drizzle along 
and west of highway 75, with chances for scattered showers 
increasing during the afternoon and evening hours as lee 
cyclogenesis commences to the west as the upper system approaches. 
Persistent cloud cover and cool air advection from the east will 
limit highs once again to the upper 40s to lower 50s. 

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Surface trough quickly deepens over the highs plains Sunday night as 
a stronger shortwave trough ejects into the central plains. Sfc 
dewpoints in the 50s, possibly 60, advects northward towards the 
CWA, while a stout 850 mb jet overruns a warm front bisecting the 
CWA west to east. Showers are likely with scattered thunderstorms 
expected after midnight. Steep midlevel lapse rates with 0-6 km bulk 
shear values in excess of 50 kts spell the potential for a few 
strong or low end severe storms. Profilers suggest a strong capping 
inversion layer throughout the day with convection initializing 
above this layer. Main hazards with these storms would be 
marginally severe hail and gusty winds. As the cold front tracks 
southeast through the CWA Monday afternoon, uncertainty increases as 
to if there will be any clearing and the possibility of 
destabilizing the capping inversion. Latest sweep of the model 
guidance leans more towards a slower trend in precipitation clearing 
eastward by late afternoon with the GFS being the more robust and 
slower with the front, increasing instability and initiating 
convection over the CWA. Most other guidance focuses the stronger, 
surface based convection towards southeast Kansas. Will maintain the 
chance for thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening, 
however many factors still unclear in the severity and mode of 
convection, especially in the late afternoon. 

Post frontal showers linger through Tuesday morning before cool and 
gusty northwest air filters into the area, dropping temps from the 
upper 60s Monday to the lower 50s Tuesday. The elongated, slow 
moving shortwave trough is gradually phased with the northern stream 
series of waves, bringing additional shower chances Wednesday night 
and Thursday. The lack of strong temperature advection should keep 
temperatures fairly similar Wednesday onward with highs around 60 
and overnight lows in the 30s. Much of the area unfortunately 
remains dry through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

MVFR stratus persists over terminals as the surface low 
translates eastward tonight. Monitoring trends at KMHK as the 
southern end of the stratus deck is anticipated to erode some, 
lifting ceilings to VFR aft 20Z. The MVFR stratus fills back in 
after 02Z as winds around 10 kts sustained veer from the north 
towards the east by 11Z. The next system is progged to bring 
scattered showers Sunday afternoon however confidence in location 
is too low to include at this time. 


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Prieto
LONG TERM...Prieto
AVIATION...Prieto