852 
FXUS64 KMEG 202023
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
323 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Light rain/drizzle associated with an upper level low will 
continue to shift off to the East. A few sprinkles may fall near
the Tennessee River after sunset, but all of the Midsouth should
be dry by midnight. North wind has ushered in cooler air across
the Midsouth. Much of the area saw the warmest temperatures of the
day shortly after sunrise. Temperatures will continue to fall
overnight with frost possible across a large portion of the
Midsouth.  Wind overnight may help to limit frost, but sheltered 
areas could see at least patchy frost. Freezing temperatures are 
possible across a large portion of West Tennessee, especially 
near the Tennessee River. Clearing skies may allow temperatures 
to fall into the upper 20s though most of the region should remain
in the middle to upper 30s. 

Clear and dry conditions are expected tomorrow and Thursday as
surface High pressure and a ridge aloft shift across the region.
Frost and freezing temperatures will be possible again Thursday 
morning, but freezing conditions should not be as widespread as we
see tonight into early Wednesday morning. Winds will become 
light, so frost may be more widespread. A few clouds are expected 
to return to the Midsouth late Thursday as the surface high shifts
over the Appalachians and Southerly winds return to the area. 

Temperatures will rebound quickly tomorrow and Thursday. Highs
tomorrow should be in the middle to upper 50s with upper 50s to
mid 60s on Thursday. Above normal temperatures are expected Friday
through the weekend. Rain chances will increase Friday as strong
warm advection sets up across Louisiana and South Mississippi the
Southeast. Early Saturday a weakening surface low will track out
of the Central Plains across Missouri. A warm front will be
oriented across Kentucky into Missouri with a cold front trailing
the surface low stretching down into East Texas. Guidance has the
bulk of the precipitation/thunderstorms to our North along the 
warm front with minimal activity along and ahead of the cold 
front. WPC has up to two inches of rain in the Missouri Bootheel
tapering off to just about a quarter of an inch in most of North
Mississippi. SPC is not advertising the threat of severe storms 
in their extended products. Not confident in the weekend forecast 
but rain chances should remain enhanced. Slightly cooler, but near
normal conditions are expected early next week. 

30

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFs

Mid-level trough is moving through the Lower Mississippi Valley
producing some rain showers along with MVFR/IFR ceilings. Ceilings
expected to improve as this trough moves east later this afternoon
into tonight. NW winds between 10-15 with a few occasional higher
gusts will diminish to 6-8 kts tonight and increase to 9-12 kts on
Wednesday.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for Clay-
     Craighead-Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lawrence-Mississippi-
     Poinsett-Randolph-St. Francis.

MO...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for Dunklin-
     Pemiscot.

MS...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for Alcorn-Benton 
     MS-Calhoun-Chickasaw-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-
     Marshall-Monroe-Panola-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Tallahatchie-Tate-
     Tippah-Tishomingo-Union-Yalobusha.

TN...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for Fayette-
     Hardeman-Haywood-Lake-Lauderdale-Shelby-Tipton.

     Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for Benton TN-
     Carroll-Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Gibson-Hardin-
     Henderson-Henry-Madison-McNairy-Obion-Weakley.

&&

$$