973 
FXUS64 KFWD 090521 AAB
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1121 PM CST Thu Mar 8 2018


.AVIATION...
Southerly winds will increase in speed Friday as the pressure 
gradient tightens due to high pressure centered over the 
southeastern United States and a deepening trough over eastern New
Mexico/West Texas. Low level moisture will increase Friday with 
the increased southerly flow. Low clouds, with MVFR ceilings, are 
expected to move into the KACT area around daybreak and into the 
Metroplex TAF sites 14z to 15z. Ceilings should improve to VFR by 
18z but should fall back into the MVFR category by 03z Saturday. 
Cannot rule out IFR ceilings/visbilities at KACT toward the end of
the current forecast period (04z to 06z Saturday), but have not 
included that with this forecast package. Some showers/sprinkles 
will be possible after 03z Saturday and for now have just placed a
VCSH in the TAFs starting at that time. Southerly winds 10 to 15 
knots just before TAF issuance time, will increase to 15 to 20 
knots with gusts over 25 knots by 18z. The gusts should decrease, 
at least temporarily, after sunset. 

58

&&


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 320 PM CST Thu Mar 8 2018/
/Tonight/

Extensive cirrus originating from a West Coast Storm system 
continues to round the top of an upper ridge over the western 
CONUS before spilling southeast across North and Central Texas. 
They have been rather thick, keeping temperatures a degree or two 
below what we would see under totally sunny skies (the good news 
is that they make beautiful sunsets). The combination of the 
thick high clouds and the return of south winds should keep 
conditions a bit warmer overnight tonight, with lows ranging from 
the mid 40s to lower 50s. A low level jet will develop overnight 
tonight, ushering in a deck of lower clouds which should arrive by
daybreak over Central Texas, then a little later farther north. 
Winds will not completely decouple, so breezy conditions can be 
expected after midnight tonight.

30

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 320 PM CST Thu Mar 8 2018/
/Friday through Thursday/

Friday will be mostly cloudy, warm, breezy and humid as surface 
low pressure deepens over the Texas Panhandle and low level warm
air advection increases. There should be minimal forcing for
ascent so no measurable rainfall is expected. Afternoon highs will
be in the 70s, however, a few spots in the far west may approach
80 if clouds can scatter in the afternoon.  

A fast moving shortwave will move across the region Friday night 
and may kick off a few showers or even an isolated thunderstorm, 
mainly east of the I-35 corridor. Brief subsidence Saturday 
morning ahead of another shortwave should limit precipitation. 
However, rain/thunderstorm chances will increase Saturday 
afternoon as the second shortwave translates across the region and
a cold front approaches from the north. The best thunderstorm 
chances will be east of the I-35 corridor where moisture and 
instability will be the most favorable. A brief strong/marginally
severe storm can't be ruled out in the northeast zones Saturday 
afternoon, but the best severe storm chances will be well to the 
east/northeast. 

Aside from the thunderstorm chances, Saturday will be a warm and
breezy day as surface winds turn to the southwest/west ahead of
the cold front. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and
middle 80s across the southwestern half of the region where
downslope winds and surface heating will be maximized. The fire
threat in the southwest will also become elevated as relative
humidities fall below 30 percent and winds become gusty.   
Temperatures across the northeastern half of the forecast area 
will be a bit cooler Saturday since clouds will linger and 
adiabatic warming will not be realized.

The shortwave will move rapidly east Saturday evening and allow 
the cold front to move through the entire region. Dry, breezy and
much cooler air will filter in behind the cold front which will
keep the fire threat somewhat elevated Saturday night.
Temperatures Sunday will be 10 to 20 degrees cooler than Saturday
with highs ranging from the middle 50s in the north to the middle
60s in the south, and the strong north winds will make it feel 
even cooler. We also expect the fire threat to become elevated 
across the western sections of North Texas where humidities will 
fall below 35 percent in the afternoon.

After a cold start, a slow warming trend will take place next 
week due to building high pressure aloft and the return of low 
level moisture. Highs next week will be generally in the 60s with 
lows mainly in the upper 30s and 40s.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    50  73  61  80  51 /   0   5  20  10   0 
Waco                49  72  60  83  51 /   0  10  20   5   0 
Paris               44  68  57  73  47 /   0   5  40  40  20 
Denton              48  72  59  79  48 /   0   5  20  10   0 
McKinney            48  70  59  76  49 /   0   5  20  20   5 
Dallas              50  72  62  78  51 /   0   5  20  10   0 
Terrell             47  70  60  77  51 /   0   5  30  20   5 
Corsicana           48  70  62  79  52 /   0  10  20  20   5 
Temple              46  72  61  85  52 /   0  10  20   5   0 
Mineral Wells       48  76  57  82  47 /   0   5  10   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

58/92