170 
FXUS64 KMEG 080532
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1132 PM CST Wed Mar 7 2018

.UPDATE...

Updated for the 06Z Aviation Discussion

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1021 PM CST Wed Mar 7 2018/ 

DISCUSSION...

Clouds have cleared out of most of the Mid-South as of 10 pm. A
few clouds will continue to scrape parts of NW TN through the
night. Surface winds have dropped off considerably east of the MS
River allowing temps to quickly drop to the freezing mark from 
Oxford MS north to Paris TN. A mid level shortwave is moving 
through the region ATTM with a weak trough reflected at the 
surface. This feature may stir up the winds a bit overnight. 
Nevertheless dropped temps a degree or two across parts of West 
Tennessee and North Mississippi. 

SJM

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 346 PM CST Wed Mar 7 2018/ 

A broad trough continues to affect the eastern CONUS this 
afternoon, supporting the nor'easter bringing strong winds and 
winter weather to the northeast. A couple of shortwave troughs on 
the southwest periphery of the trough are having some affect on 
the weather in our neck of the woods. Ascent associated with the 
wave moving across MO has helped maintain the cloud cover across 
the Mid-South this afternoon, keeping temperatures in the 40s in 
most areas. This cloud cover will dissipate this evening as we 
lose surface heating and the dynamic forcing wanes. Winds will 
become light from the northwest and temperatures will fall into 
the 30s this evening, eventually dropping into the upper 20s and 
lower 30s in some areas. The coldest temperatures (upper 20s) will
mainly affect rural west TN and north MS. However, no Freeze 
Warnings will be issued despite the early blooming of some plants 
and trees. These freezing temperatures will be covered by a 
Special Weather Statement instead.

Other than the cold temperatures, generally benign weather will 
continue through Friday afternoon. South winds will return on 
Friday, commencing moisture advection ahead of the next trough. 
Some models are hinting a few showers over northwest TN by Friday 
afternoon, but the better rain chances will hold off until late 
Friday night. Rain chances will ramp up over the weekend as the 
trough approaches. Some instability will be present so
thunderstorms are possible over the weekend, but the potential for
strong to severe storms remains low. Precipitable water is 
progged to increase to 1.00-1.25" across the Mid-South by Saturday
night, which is only about 1 standard deviation above climo. That
said, locally heavy rainfall will be possible as this system 
moves through the area Saturday and Saturday night with average 
rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches possible. A Flood Watch is not 
warranted at this time but these rainfall totals may exacerbate 
ongoing flooding concerns.

Rain chances continue on Sunday but will taper off Sunday night as
the trough moves to the east. Temperatures in the wake of this
system are forecast to run slightly below normal with highs in the
50s and overnight lows in the 30s. Some areas will likely approach
freezing during the early morning hours next week. Dry weather is
expected Monday through midweek.

Johnson

&&

.AVIATION... 
06Z TAF cycle

VFR conditions will continue for the entire forecast period. Winds
will be mainly from the west at around 5 knots overnight then
increasing to around 10 knots by late Thursday morning.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$