996 
FXUS63 KICT 060905
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
305 AM CST Tue Mar 6 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) 
Issued at 304 AM CST Tue Mar 6 2018

Deep upper low continues to spin over northern IA with a surface 
low stacked directly below. Strong pressure gradient is already 
producing gusts over 60 mph across central Nebraska. 

Main story will continue to be very strong winds and associated
fire danger.

Just like yesterday, we are expecting most of the forecast area to
mix to around 700mb which will allow very strong northwest winds
to make it to the surface. We are looking at widespread 30 to 40
mph sustained winds with gusts 50 to 55 mph. The higher end of
this range will be for areas generally along and especially west
of I-135. Did go ahead and extend the high wind warning a row of
counties east from what we previously had. Even with slightly 
higher RH values than yesterday, fire danger will still be extreme
to catastrophic. See fire weather section below for additional 
details. 

Shortwave will be on the move this afternoon into the evening
and by 12z Wed this system will stretch from the western Great 
Lakes into the Ohio Valley. This will allow surface high pressure 
to finally make an appearance bringing an end to the high winds. 
Weak upper ridging will slide over the Rockies for the end of the 
work week which will bring some weak return flow and warming 
temps. Confidence is high in well above normal temps area wide for
Fri as they approach the 70s. 

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Monday) 
Issued at 304 AM CST Tue Mar 6 2018

GFS and ECMWF both continue to bring some shortwave energy out of
the northern Rockies and out into the Plains for Sat. However,
there is some fairly significant discrepancies between the two
models. The GFS takes more of the energy further south compared to
the ECMWF which would result in a wetter forecast. Considering the
pattern we have been in the last few months, not ready to buy off
on the wetter solution yet. What does look likely however, is that
we will see some cooler temps for the weekend. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1140 PM CST Mon Mar 5 2018

Wind shear will be strong across the region overnight into the
early morning hours. Otherwise northwest winds will increase
dramatically across the entire area with wind gusts of 45 to 50
knots likely at times. Winds will decrease shortly after sunset.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 304 AM CST Tue Mar 6 2018

Extreme to catastrophic grassland fire danger likely today.

Northwest winds today will be some of the strongest we have seen 
in some time. We are looking at sustained speeds in the 30-40 mph 
range with gusts 50-55 mph. The higher end of this range will be 
for areas generally along and west of I-135. RH values will be 
higher than yesterday as they range from 25% to 35%, with the 
lower values west of I-135. Higher wind speeds than yesterday will
make up for the slightly higher RH's to keep the grassland fire 
danger in the catastrophic to extreme category. Good news is that 
today should be the last fire weather concern day for a while. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    53  25  50  24 /   0   0   0   0 
Hutchinson      51  24  50  23 /   0   0   0   0 
Newton          50  24  48  23 /  10   0   0   0 
ElDorado        51  25  49  24 /  10   0   0   0 
Winfield-KWLD   54  26  51  25 /   0   0   0   0 
Russell         48  21  52  21 /   0   0   0   0 
Great Bend      50  21  52  22 /   0   0   0   0 
Salina          49  24  49  21 /  10   0   0   0 
McPherson       50  23  49  21 /  10   0   0   0 
Coffeyville     56  27  49  25 /   0   0   0   0 
Chanute         52  26  47  23 /  10   0   0   0 
Iola            51  26  46  23 /  10   0   0   0 
Parsons-KPPF    55  26  48  24 /  10   0   0   0 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM CST this evening 
for KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM CST this evening 
for KSZ049-051>053-068>072-083-092>096-098>100.

High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM CST this 
evening for KSZ032-033-047-048-050-067-082-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...CDJ
FIRE WEATHER...RBL