572 
FXUS63 KARX 200516
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1116 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

.UPDATE...Overnight
Issued at 1109 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Freezing drizzle continues for many areas except far northeast
Iowa into extreme southwest Wisconsin. Thunderstorms now look to
move through the area after 2 am bringing freezing rain showers,
sleet, and perhaps quick bursts of snow. This will only make
travel conditiosn worse for the Tuesday morning commute. Have
added thunderstorms to the forecast. We could see some small 
hail, possibly pea size, out of the stronger cells. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 206 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Watching two areas of heavier precipitation this afternoon. The
first is in the vicinity of a surface warm front across northeast
Iowa and far southern Wisconsin. With current temperatures in the
mid to upper 30s, this precipitation will fall as rain. The second
is mainly north of I-90 where temperatures are colder from the mid
20s to lower 30s. This precipitation is mainly freezing rain/ 
drizzle, but is at times mixing with some light snow and/or sleet.
Models are in good agreement, showing precipitation gradually
weakening from south to north through the rest of the afternoon 
and into the evening as the depth of low-level saturation 
decreases. 

This evening into the early overnight will generally be dry, but 
could continue to see periods of light freezing drizzle for areas
where temperatures are below 32 degrees. Bigger concern will be a
second round of precipitation later tonight into Tuesday morning
as a short-wave rides along southwest aloft and across the forecast
area. 19.12Z model suite and latest RAP/HRRR are in agreement
showing that there may be some more convective clusters within 
the broader precipitation field. More vigorous vertical motion and
deeper moisture within these clusters could promote a mix of snow
and sleet at times, but biggest threat is still freezing rain. 
Ice accumulations are expected across a broader swath of the 
forecast area tonight into Tuesday morning as surface temperatures
drop into the 20s to lower 30s for most areas.

Current forecast calls for an additional tenth to two tenths of
ice through Tuesday morning. So far today, the highest ice totals
have been across portions of southeast Minnesota, but are
generally a tenth of an inch or less. Will need to watch this 
area in particular overnight for a potential short-lived upgrade 
to an Ice Storm Warning, but lower confidence in placement of 
higher amounts precludes issuance at this time. Most other areas 
have seen little to no ice today, so current Winter Weather 
Advisories look good with no changes planned in timing or area. 
Keep in mind that any ice that has already fallen will not melt 
through tomorrow with sub-freezing temperatures. Untreated roads, 
sidewalks, and parking lots will continue to be slick. The Tuesday
morning commute will also be hazardous and slow-going for many 
areas. Make sure to check the latest road conditions before 
leaving for school or work. 

One additional concern to watch tonight will be the potential for
dense fog across portions of northeast IA and southern WI. Current
visibility south of the warm front is poor in many places and this
could advect northward into Fayette, Clayton, and Grant Counties.
Will monitor through the night for possible fog headlines.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 206 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Not much time to delve into the long term forecast, but mid-week
looks dry with the next best chances for precipitation Thursday
night into Friday and Saturday night as a series of ill-resolved 
short-waves move across the region. Precipitation type will be
dependent on temperatures, but right now, snow looks to be the
dominant type. Temperatures look to be cooler through mid-week
with a warming trend Friday into the weekend.  

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1116 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

IFR to LIFR conditions will continue through at least mid morning
Tuesday in freezing drizzle and low stratus. Have included sleet
and thunderstorms in the KLSE taf from 09Z to 12Z as thunderstorms
look to move through during this time. Precipitation may fall as a
sleet freezing rain mix during the thunderstorms and cannot rule
out some very small hail. Conditions should start to improve late
this morning into this afternoon and we are expected MVFR
conditions to return by 23Z at both TAF sites. 

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Tuesday for WIZ017-029-
     032>034-041>044-053>055.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for WIZ061.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Tuesday for MNZ079-
     086>088-094>096.

IA...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Tuesday for IAZ008>011-
     018-019-029-030.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for IAZ029-030.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Wetenkamp
SHORT TERM...Rogers
LONG TERM...Rogers
AVIATION...Wetenkamp