286 
FXUS62 KILM 150339
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1040 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure off the coast will result in well above normal 
temperatures through Friday. A cold front will move through the 
area Friday night, followed by cool high pressure for the 
weekend. Warm southerly winds will develop early next week and 
result in a significant warmup. A cold front will approach the 
area by Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 900 PM Wednesday...The center of high pressure was situated
across S Georgia and N Florida this eve with some ridging  
extending offshore of the Carolinas. A weak mid-level shortwave was 
bringing a few sprinkles, mainly to the N and NW of the area. This 
precipitation will pass to our N and then offshore through sunrise.

SW winds will gradually increase as the high expands offshore, 
and this will drive warm and moist advection overnight. This 
will keep lows from dropping below the mid 50s overnight. Clouds 
have tended to fill in already and may lower if the high resolution 
models are correct. Certainly not a repeat performance of last 
night, but we may see a period of low stratus overnight and early on 
Thu. 

Thursday will be warm with developing sunshine pushing high 
temps well up into the 70s. Locations near the immediate coast 
will be held down to around 70 due to the cool Atlantic waters. 
Any low stratus is expected to burn off in the morning, but 
cirrus clouds will persist as the subtropical jet transports 
moisture from the Pacific. 850mb temps will climb towards 14C.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Wednesday...Southwesterly gradient winds don't grow 
overly strong Thursday night but 850-925mb winds crank up into the 
40-50kt range. This will lead to a breezy night with low 
temperatures a bit milder than climatological highs as the region 
stays above 60. Forecast soundings show drying in this WSW jetting 
but saturation developing below it in a shallow surface layer 
manifesting as a shallow layer of stratus. This moist layer persists 
but not to quite the degree of saturation through the day Friday, 
shaving off afternoon temperatures from record values. A cold front 
comes through Friday night and its orientation changes from a 
traditional SW to NE to a more backdoor-looking W to E as it aligns 
with the deeper layer westerly flow. This is not a good setup for 
substantial QPF even despite how moist the especially as forecast 
soundings show the moisture to be quite shallow.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Wednesday...Surface high pressure will move off 
the east coast Saturday in the wake of a cold front. The front 
is expected to stall just south of the CWA Saturday, with weak 
waves of low pressure riding along it, bringing the potential 
for scattered showers. Low pressure will strengthen off the Mid-
Atlantic coast as a 500 mb shortwave transits the eastern 
seaboard Saturday night, followed by drying out in zonal flow 
aloft. A mid and upper level ridge will amplify off the 
southeast CONUS Sunday afternoon through Wednesday, and with 
Bermuda high pressure becoming established, temperatures Monday-
Wednesday will remain well above climo. Best chances for precip
will be Saturday and Saturday night as a cold front surges 
through, and again by Wednesday as the upper ridge off the 
southeast CONUS begins to break down.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 23Z...Return flow will return tonight with winds shifting
to the southwest through the overnight hours. Warm air 
advection will occur after midnight, with low level moisture 
increasing enough to produce some possible IFR stratus, with 
mainly MVFR fog expected. Models are in fairly good agreement 
in bringing in IFR conditions around 08Z. Most of the IFR/MVFR 
conditions will end shortly after daybreak. Moderate southwest 
flow with warm temperatures are expected on Thursday.

Extended Outlook...AM IFR/BR Fri, otherwise VFR Thu/Fri. 
Showers/MVFR/tempo IFR Sat. VFR Sun. MVFR/SHRA Sun night/Mon.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 900 PM Wednesday...High pressure moving offshore will 
allow SW winds to increase through the period. Wind speeds 
around 10 kt overnight will increase to 15 to 20 kt on Thursday.
Wave heights tonight will build to 2 to 4 ft. Increasing SE 
swell will combine with an amplifying SW wind wave to drive 
wave heights up to 4 to 5 ft Thursday. A Small Craft Should
Exercise Caution headline may be required later Thu. 

Late in the period, sea fog may become possible as the warm moist 
air continually flood over the cool shelf waters. At this time it 
appears the best chance for sea fog will occur just beyond this 
period and have left out any mention in the Wx grids until then.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Wednesday...Southwesterly pre-frontal flow is expected 
for most of the period. The exception will be a sharp turn to the 
northeast Friday night with frontal passage. Surface winds and the 
wind-borne seas will stay below flag thresholds. Low level jetting 
will be rather strong but tend to stay just inland of the waters. 
Additionally the cool SSTs and the warm surface air will not foster 
great vertical mixing.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 
As of 300 PM Wednesday...A wedge of high pressure across the 
interior Carolinas on Saturday will result in northeast flow 
across the waters, with a decent gradient producing winds as 
high as 15-20 knots. There is uncertainty as to where the 
strongest gradient will set up Saturday considering there will 
be a frontal boundary lingering around. By late Saturday night, 
a cold front is expected to sweep off the coast, bringing north 
winds for Sunday. A coastal trough will develop Sunday night and
move inland Monday, allowing northeast winds to swing around to
the south by Monday afternoon.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/JDW
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...CRM
AVIATION...DL