901 
FXUS64 KBMX 080007
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
607 PM CST Wed Feb 7 2018

.UPDATE...
For 00Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Through Tonight.

A well organized squall line with bow echoes tracked across 
central Alabama early this morning. Damage reports indicate that
some of the damage may have been caused by tornadoes. A cold 
front has pushed to just north of Montgomery. Strong cold air
advection behind the front has dropped temperatures into the 40s,
with 60s south of the front. Most of the remaining showers were 
along and south of the cold front, but an upper level short wave 
trof over Texas could bring some light rain back northward early 
this evening. The short wave trof axis will reach west Alabama
later this evening, and the remaining rain will exit the southeast
counties shortly after midnight. Clouds extend back to near 
Memphis, so clouds will remain over central Alabama through the 
evening hours, with clearing from north to south after midnight.

58/rose

.LONG TERM... 
Thursday through Tuesday.

Thursday will present the best opportunity for dry conditions across 
Central Alabama in the extended. The cold front will be to our south 
as upper level flow briefly becomes more zonal. Drier air will 
spread into the area as surface high pressure crosses the Ohio River 
and Tennessee Valleys, and quickly to the East Coast by Friday 
morning. 

Low level winds become southerly and moisture returns northward 
Friday as the upper level pattern amplifies in response to a trough 
digging southward across the Rockies, putting Central Alabama under 
a more southwesterly flow pattern. This increase in moisture and 
isentropic lift will be aided by weak upper level impulses moving 
across the area and result in rain chances each period through the 
end of the week. The trough will enhance an area of low level 
convergence, and a weak front will move into the area on Sunday. The 
front does not do much to counter the moist pattern however, and 
with southwesterly flow aloft and continued southerly low level 
flow, rain chances will remain into early next week. 

14

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Discussion.

Front is through all TAF sites, but there are still some light to
moderate areas of rain behind the front that will affect the
MGM/TOI TAFs this evening as overall system pushes southeast. Any
IFR cigs should be gone by 3z. With MVFR continuing for many 
through midnight, except across the far south (MGM/TOI) where MVFR
cigs could linger through around 9z as drier air slowly filters 
in from the north. Northerly winds are expected to continue into 
Thursday day, but possibly veer 20-30 degrees from overnight as
main surface ridge pushes into Eastern Conus from the Midwest. By
mid morning most except far south should be SKC.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... 

Widespread rainfall and scattered thunderstorm are possible today
as a cold front moves through the area. Dry conditions return
briefly for Thursday. A wet pattern will set up for the end of the
week through the beginning of next week, with rain chances
mentioned each day. There are no fire weather concerns at this 
time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     30  54  33  59  48 /   0   0   0  30  60 
Anniston    31  55  37  59  49 /  10   0  10  40  60 
Birmingham  31  56  37  60  51 /  10   0   0  40  60 
Tuscaloosa  32  57  37  61  53 /  10   0   0  40  70 
Calera      33  57  38  59  51 /  10   0  10  40  60 
Auburn      38  59  41  56  50 /  40   0  10  40  60 
Montgomery  39  60  40  61  52 /  40   0  10  40  50 
Troy        41  61  43  60  53 /  40   0  10  40  50 

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None. 

&&

$$

58/14/08