975 
FXUS64 KCRP 040347 AAB
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
947 PM CST Sat Feb 3 2018

.DISCUSSION...

The forecast is in good shape with no major changes needed. Fog 
has developed a little sooner than expected over the Victoria 
Crossroads where visibility has dropped between less than a mile 
at times. Overall trend is for fog to continue to develop late 
this evening and during the overnight hours. Dense fog will be 
possible with vsbys less than a quarter of a time at times. Trends
will need to be watched closely and a dense fog advisory may 
become necessary later. 

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 551 PM CST Sat Feb 3 2018/ 

DISCUSSION...

Updated for 00z aviation. 

AVIATION...

VFR conditions prevail early this evening across the South Texas
terminals. However, low clouds and fog are expected to develop
tonight with IFR/LIFR cigs/vsbys possible. Poor conditions should
persist through mid to late morning with VFR conditions returning
after 18z. Winds through the period will be light and variable
tonight, becoming more northerly and northeasterly Sunday
afternoon. Wind speeds will generally remain 10 knots or less
through the period. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 356 PM CST Sat Feb 3 2018/ 

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night)...

Coastal low and associated surface trough are prog to continue to
shift NE away from the area and dissipate tonight. As this occurs,
westerly flow above the sfc will increase and spread drier air
across the region. The combination of drier air moving over a
shallow quasi-moist lowest 100mb should result in the formation of
fog overnight. However, there are a couple of caveats to the 
fog development. First, the 925mb flow is prog to remain roughly 
25 to 35 knots for most of the night...which should result in some
near sfc mixing...and isn't prog to weaken until late in the 
night. Second, periods of rather dense cirrus are prog to drift 
across S TX tonight as a 95kt H25 jet remains overhead. At this 
time, I feel that patchy fog may develop around midnight across 
the N Coastal Bend and then develop more significantly across the 
Coastal Plains and Brush Country around sunrise, and become the 
thickest the first two hours after sunrise. 

Fog should mix out by mid/late Sunday morning with a very warm 
day currently expected. H85 flow is prog to remain westerly 
through the day with H85 temps ranging from 16 to 18 C across the 
region...with these warmer temps prog to mix to the sfc. Many
inland areas should warm into the 80s for max temps...but ultimate
warming will be dependent upon how soon a NNE flow develops in the
afternoon as a weak prefrontal trough pushes southward. Stronger
push of CAA is prog to occur Sunday Night (albeit wind speeds
should not be all that strong) as main front pushes through. Some
patchy to areas of drizzle will be possible across the eastern
half of S TX towards daybreak Monday.

LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...

The tail end of a cold front will sink into the region Sunday night 
into Monday morning. Moisture pooling along the boundary combined 
with isentropic lift will support a few isolated to scattered 
showers, mainly across the Coastal Bend Monday. Although GFS/NAM are 
going a bit cooler than the ECMWF, temps on Monday will be pleasant, 
with highs generally in the mid to upper 60s across the Coastal 
Plains and low to mid 70s for the western portions of the CWA. 
Easterly winds will shift to the southeast later in the afternoon. 
With the southeasterly flow, more moisture will advect back into the 
area with PWATs increasing to around 1.0 to 1.3 inches. Slight 
chance rain will continue into to Tuesday with the lingering 
isentropic lift and return of moisture. 

Temps will be warmer on Tuesday, but the warm up will be short lived 
as the upper level trough digs across the Rockies/Central CONUS, 
another, slightly stronger cold front will push into South Texas. 
Rain chances will increase ahead of the cold frontal passage as 
PWATs increase to near 1.5 inches. The boundary is expected to push 
through by Wednesday morning with cooler temps, breezy northerly 
winds, and chance of rain to develop and continue through Thursday.
SCEC/SCA conditions are likely to develop across the nearshore and 
offshore Gulf waters Wednesday afternoon and continue through the 
night. High pressure begins to build into the area Thursday and 
things dry out a bit. By Friday, winds will shift back to the south 
and moisture will increase the chances of rain. Models are in fairly 
good agreement about pushing a strong cold front through Texas on 
Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    56  80  59  71  64  /  10  10  10  30  20 
Victoria          53  80  53  70  61  /  10  10  10  30  30 
Laredo            55  86  57  76  64  /  10  10  10  20  20 
Alice             54  84  56  74  64  /  10  10  10  30  30 
Rockport          57  73  57  69  62  /  10  10  10  30  30 
Cotulla           49  85  52  73  61  /  10  10  10  20  30 
Kingsville        54  84  57  74  65  /  10  10  10  30  20 
Navy Corpus       58  75  60  70  63  /  10  10  10  30  20 

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM