210 
FXUS62 KMHX 021642
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1142 AM EST Fri Feb 2 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move offshore this afternoon. High pressure 
will build in through Saturday before moving offshore Sunday 
morning. A cold front and area of low pressure will impact the 
region Sunday and Sunday night. High pressure will pass to the 
north early next week. A cold front will move through Wednesday.
High pressure will build in behind the front late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1100 AM Friday...Cold front has moved off coast and back 
edge of main cloud shield and precip will be there in next 1-2 
hours. Forecast generally on track with temps rising slightly 
with clearing but limited by increasing cold advection rest of 
day. 

/Previous discussion/

As of 630 AM Fri...Cold front has now progressed to the NC
coast, in fact a bit faster than expected. Rain showers 
continue for most locations, with the heavier band of precip now
offshore. Winds have picked up and are initially quite strong 
behind the front, but slack off further behind it. Winds will 
strengthen later this morning as the pressure gradient tightens 
with the front moving offshore and high pressure moving in from 
the west. Also, temperatures have cooled significantly behind 
the front dropping 10-15 degrees in less than 30 minutes. Temps 
are now near the lows for this morning, mostly ranging from the 
low to upper 40s. 

Cold air advection will limit high temperatures today, with only
mid to upper 40s expected inland, and upper 40s to low 50s along
the coast. Rain showers are still expected to persist into the
early afternoon, especially over the NE portions of the CWA, and
have likely PoPs transitioning to chance PoPs from this morning
to the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
As of 335 AM...With high pressure building in and cold upper 
trough overhead, it will become very cold Friday night. Good 
radiational cooling conditions will help temperatures drop 
quickly, although winds around 5 knots may limit this somewhat. 
Low temps will reach the upper teens to low 20s inland, and the 
mid to upper 20s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 250 AM Friday...Continued cold and dry Sat as high pres 
builds across. Highs Sat will only reach the upper 30s to lower 
40s. The high will slide off the coast Sat night with WAA 
developing late...Lows of 30 to 35 will likely occur in the 
evening with temps leveling off then rising late. Moisture will 
be increasing late and could see a few showers break out towards
dawn but expecting temperatures to be above freezing by then so
not expecting any P-type issues at this time. 

Models are a bit slower and further W with low pres lifting NE
near region Sun into Sun night. Now looks like all the region
will get in warm sector Sun with highs in the upper 50s to lower 
60s. Moisture will increase with showers expected to become 
numerous in the aftn and cont into Sun night. Cont likely pops 
for this time with precip tapering off later Sun night into
early Mon morning as the low moves offshore. Lows Sun night 
will be mostly in the upper 30s to low 40s (mid 40s beaches). 

High pres will quickly build over the area Mon then move 
offshore Tue with dry weather expected. Models a bit warmer now 
with near seasonal highs in the 50s Mon and Tue with lows Mon 
night mainly in the 30s. Next front will impact the area Wed and
Wed night with a chc of showers and highs lower to mid 60s.

High pressure will build over the area Thu into Fri with dry
weather expected except for maybe a lingering early morning
shower Thu. Forecast highs will be in the 50s both days.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term /through Friday Night/... 
As of 635 AM Fri...MVFR conditions are present across the
airspace behind a cold front that has just passed to the
coastline. VFR conditions are expected to return by mid morning,
as high pressure build in. Winds remain gusty, and will continue
to do so for most of the day, gusting 20-25 kts out of the NW.
Skies will clear totally by this evening, and winds will calm
down to 10 kts or less.

Long Term /Sat through Tue/...
As of 250 AM Friday...High pres and VFR Sat. Approaching cold 
front and areas of low pres will lead to numerous showers
developing Sun with sub VFR likely thru Sun night. High pres 
will build in for Mon and Tue with drier air and VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Tonight/... 
As of 1100 AM Friday...No significant changes with update.
Stonger winds in wake of frontal passage have diminished with
weakening of cold air surge but secondary surge with gusts 25-30
KT noted over mid-Atlantic coast and Chesapeake Bay with latest
meso models supporting winds increasing again late afternoon in
evening. Thus no change to SCA for outer waters with mention of
25 KT gusts for sounds. 

/Previous discussion/
As of 635 AM Fri...Small craft conditions are ongoing for the 
coastal waters and Pamlico Sound. Winds will are currently SW 
20-25 kts, and will turn to the NW 20-25 kts this morning as a 
cold front crosses the waters. Winds will begin to die down late
by early Friday night, becoming 15-20 kts, and then 10-15 kts 
overnight. Seas are currently 5-8 ft, and are expected to 
increase to a bit more this morning. Seas will subside to 4-6 ft
by the afternoon, and remain mostly steady Friday night.

Long Term /Sat through Tue/...
As of 250 AM Friday...Northerly winds 10-15 kt Sat morning will
become E 5-10 kt Sat afternoon. Should see lingering 6 ft seas 
outer northern and central waters early Sat morning with seas
then subsiding to 2 -4 ft in the afternoon. Approaching front 
and area of low pres will lead to SE to S winds increasing to 15
to 25 kts Sun into Sun evening with seas building to 5 to 9 
feet. The front will move offshore late Sun night with NNW winds
15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kts Mon and seas in the 5 to 7 
foot range. Tue winds are forecast to be E-SE 5-10 kt with seas 
2-4 ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Saturday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ156-
     158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME/SGK
NEAR TERM...JBM/SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...RF/JME
AVIATION...RF/JME/SGK
MARINE...RF/JME/JBM/SGK