860 
FXUS63 KILX 291737
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1137 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1031 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2017

High pressure over the Grt Lks region will slowly move east while
a weakening low pressure area in eastern OK moves northeast into
southwest MO late this afternoon. In response, clouds will
continue to increase across the area. Dry weather is still
expected remainder of the day, with rain chances increasing during
the late evening to overnight hours. Current forecast has good
handle on current situation and expected outcome through the
afternoon. High forecast still looks good as well. Therefore, no
update planned at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2017

Cold front will drop into the Ohio River Valley this morning, 
allowing a cooler airmass to settle into central Illinois. Skies
will initially be mostly sunny along/north of I-72: however,
clouds will increase this afternoon as an upper-level disturbance
approaches from the southwest. High temperatures will top out in
the lower to middle 50s. A northern-stream wave will push a cold
front into Illinois tonight, bringing clouds and perhaps a few
light showers. Moisture profiles remain shallow, but convergence
along the boundary will be strong enough to trigger scattered
showers...particulary across the E/SE KILX CWA. Have included
slight chance PoPs west of the Illinois River after
midnight...increasing to high chance along/east of I-57. 
Overnight lows will range from the middle 30s far northwest around
Galesburg...to the lower 40s elsewhere. 

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2017

Showers will linger across east-central and southeast Illinois
into Thursday morning before quickly pushing into Indiana by
midday. Once the front departs, an extended period of mild and dry
weather will be on tap from Thursday afternoon through Sunday
before the next system comes into the picture by early next week.
00z Nov 29 models continue to struggle with the pattern, with both
the GFS and ECMWF suggesting a progressive upper wave tracking
across the Plains into the Midwest. Meanwhile, the GEM appears to
be the odd model out with its more amplified solution showing a
closed low forming over the Desert Southwest on Tuesday. Given
poor run-to-run consistency from all models, forecast confidence
remains poor beyond Sunday. However, have rejected the slower GEM
in favor of the faster GFS/ECMWF consensus. As a result, have
carried chance PoPs for rain showers Monday into Tuesday, followed
by colder/drier conditions Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1137 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Mid
clouds around 8kft have started to advect over the sites and
should be covering all of them at start time, or will be close.
These mid clouds will continue through the afternoon and evening.
Then scattered showers will develop along and just ahead of a
front coming in from the northwest. Will have just VCSH and lower
cigs around 4kft overnight. By morning, precip will have ended,
but clouds will remain for a few hours. Then clear skies will move
over the sites during the morning hours and should be past CMI a
couple of hours before 18z. Winds will be easterly to start but
eventually become southwest late evening as precip and front gets
closer. Once front passes overnight, winds will become west-
northwest. Wind speeds will be around 10-14kts this afternoon,
then lighter tonight and overnight, then around 10kts once front
passes tomorrow.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Auten