National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDTSA
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDTSA
Product Timestamp: 2017-11-28 17:55 UTC
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700 FXUS64 KTSA 281755 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1155 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2017 .AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG. Latest visible satellite shows a band of low clouds developing ahead of a cold front and associated wind shift. Will include a tempo group for KBVO for MVFR ceilings this afternoon given recent observational trends. Wind gusts should subside by late afternoon, as mid clouds spread over the area from the west. Latest short term guidance suggests thunder chances are highest after mid evening across northeast Oklahoma and after midnight across northwest Arkansas. There may be only light showers which affect KMLC and KFSM, with lightning chances too low to mention. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1022 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2017/ DISCUSSION... Main short term concern is wildfire risk today. RH values will be lowest across northwest Arkansas, generally in the 30-35 percent range. However, the winds will be lighter as well. RH values across eastern Oklahoma will be higher than in Arkansas. There will be a threat for wind driven wildfire today across the entire area, but especially across eastern Oklahoma where recent observed wind gusts are around 25-30 mph. There are isolated wind gusts above 30 mph as noted on the OK mesonet. Fuels are critically dry, which adds to the fire danger. Surface boundary and associated wind shift is now located from Hutchinson, Kansas to just northwest of Clinton, Oklahoma. This wind shift will begin affecting the western portion of the forecast area, west of Highway 75, after 3-4 PM. No precipitation is expected before this evening, and we have removed low pops before 6 PM. The chance for rain looks good for tonight across northeast Oklahoma, with the favorable upper low track. The highest chance will be after midnight, mainly north of Interstate 40. Some areas may receive a half inch of rain or more, but the amounts really drop off south and east. && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ AVIATION.....06 CORFIDI