811 
FXUS61 KRLX 241720
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1220 PM EST Fri Nov 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure provides dry weather through tonight. A cold 
front crosses Saturday with limited moisture. Cooler Sunday. 
Milder through next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 930 AM Friday...

Forecast on track.

As of 610 AM Friday...

Made some minor updates to temperatures this morning based on
current obs and trends. 

As of 1230 AM Friday...

Quiet day expected today with mostly sunny conditions as high
pressure gradually drifts east. Stayed on the higher side of 
the guidance envelope today for high, with generally 50s to 
around 60 degrees.

Fairly weak system approaches tonight. Have clouds on the
increase, with some low end POPs arriving prior to sunrise
across the northwestern part of the forecast area. Southerly
winds should keep hilltops and ridges a bit warmer, but low
spots may decouple before the clouds arrive. This makes the low
forecast a bit tough, ended up a degree or so warming across the
west, and a bit cooler east where the clouds will arrive later.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 230 AM Friday...

Weak cold front passes Friday night/Saturday morning providing 
a reinforcement to more fall like temperatures for the end of 
the weekend, but this will be the last cooler push of air for a 
while. Scattered showers expected, possibly changing to light 
non accumulating snow above 3000ft. High pressure then moves
back into the middle Ohio Valley and central Appalachians for
the beginning of the work week.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 AM Friday...

Colder air stays well to the north for the extended forecast
with heights moving back towards 570dkm and 850hPa temperatures
in the upper single digits. Mild weather will dominate through
mid week before the next chance for an airmass change arrives
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1220 PM Friday...

Widespread VFR conditions expected through the period. High 
pressure will remain in control through tonight. Clouds will be
on the increase and a low chance for rain showers is possible
across the northern sites as a weak system approaches from the 
west.

Southwesterly flow becomes more southerly tonight. Winds will be
calm where the atmosphere decouples. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...
     
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
     
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
EST 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/26
NEAR TERM...ARJ/MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...ARJ