625 
FXUS61 KRLX 201901
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
201 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure today yields to southwest flow tonight and 
Tuesday. Cold front crosses Tuesday night. High pressure again 
through Thanksgiving. Cold front crosses Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 202 PM Monday...

Main forecast concern through the near term will be 
temperatures and winds as southwest flow engages behind a 
departing high pressure system and in advance of an approaching 
cold front.

With light winds anticipated early tonight, prime radiational 
cooling conditions will result in a quick temp drop toward 
dewpoints which currently reside in the low 20s. Temps will 
level off later in the night across the lowlands as winds begin 
to stir. However, sheltered mountain valleys will stay decoupled
through much of the night allowing them to fall deep into the 
20s.

Winds will ramp up quickly after dawn on Tuesday as we mix up 
into stronger winds aloft. Gusts 20 to 25 mph are expected out 
of the southwest. The strong mixing and partial sunshine will 
help boost temps into the 50s to near 60 for most locations 
outside of the higher mountains. Clouds will be on the increase 
through the day, but expect any precip with the approaching 
front to hold off until Tuesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 AM Monday...

High pressure will remain in control on Tuesday, with a warmer
southwesterly flow taking hold as surface high pressure slides
off to the east, out ahead of an approaching low pressure system
and associated cold front. Models still not indicating lots of
moisture with this front, which will push east through the CWA
late Tuesday through Wednesday morning, but still looking like a
decent chance for precipitation, albeit light, across the north.
Expect precipitation to start out as light rain Tuesday night,
before transitioning to light rain and snow showers early
Wednesday morning. At this point, generally less than an inch of
accumulation is figured for the northern mountains late Tuesday
night/early Wednesday, with no accumulation expected across
lowland areas. Any precipitation will taper off by late morning
Wednesday as front moves off to the east and moisture depth
decreases.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 220 AM Monday...

High pressure will dominate the weather Thanksgiving day and
Friday, with dry, but cool conditions.

Focus then shifts to the weekend, when another system will 
potential move across the north, possibly spreading light 
precipitation back into the CWA. There is still a lot of 
uncertainty in this, but looking at the possibility of rain and 
snow showers again towards the end of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1248 PM Monday...

Surface high pressure will slide by to our south over the next
24 hours as a cold front drops across the Great Lakes and into
the Ohio Valley. This will yield increasing southwesterly flow
which should preclude any fog formation tonight. While surface 
winds will stay generally light through tonight, they will 
increase and become gusty after dawn on Tuesday as the front 
approaches. The southwest flow may transport just enough
moisture northward west of the mountains to produce a stratocu 
field for a few hours Tuesday morning for HTS but am not 
expecting any ceilings at this time. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
     
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
     
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: A brief period of MVFR ceilings may occur
Tuesday morning at HTS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...ABE
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...ABE