424 
FXUS64 KLZK 070912
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
312 AM CST Tue Nov 7 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Wednesday Night

The cold front that moved through the CWA on Mon is now just to the 
SE of the CWA...with most of the area seeing at least some fog north 
of the front. Most sites have remained above 1/2sm VIS...with some 
slight improvements in VIS noted recently. As a result...will 
continue to hold off on a Dense Fog Adv. Some areas of DZ were also 
noted...along with the occasional SHRA across far NERN/ERN sections 
of the CWA. Expect the DZ and FG to continue through just after 
sunrise...with some occasional RA remaining possible. 

Not a whole lot of change is expected through this 
afternoon...though the fog should become more sparse over time. 
Expect some patchy DZ and some isolated to scattered SHRA. NRLY SFC 
flow...cloud cover and some precip will keep temps cool...with temps 
warming very little by this afternoon. Highs will be in the upper 
40s to mid 50s across the north...to the upper 50s to mid 60s 
further south. 

Some patchy DZ and FG is expected overnight tonight as well...with 
some pockets of rainfall again possible. An upper shortwave trough 
will drop SE into the state Wed into Wed night...with NRLY flow 
continuing across the CWA. This will keep temps cool...with highs in 
the upper 40s to mid 50s. Better rain chances will be seen with this 
upper wave...with scattered to some numerous SHRA expected. The best 
chances for seeing precip will be across the SRN half of the CWA 
during the daytime hrs Wed. Chances then decrease and move south Wed 
night as the upper wave drops further south.

&&

.LONG TERM...Thursday Through Monday

Models in good agreement that the extended period will start out 
cool and dry before the next storm system arrives for late Saturday 
and into Sunday. There are some model differences with this system 
concerning the timing of its arrival but even so, the system appears 
to be weak and not a lot of precipitation is expected. As such, a 
blend of solutions is preferred this morning.

Period will initiate with shortwave trough exiting the area with 
high pressure, both aloft and on the surface dominating for Thursday 
and Friday. Highs will top out in the mid to upper 50s with lows 
generally in the mid to upper 30s. 

Next upper trough will be moving through the nations mid section in 
the Saturday night to Sunday afternoon time frame. Associated cold 
front will move across the state during that time frame, give or 
take a few hours with the timing differences being what they are. As 
such, will need to hold onto some precipitation chances for a good 
part of Sunday as well but only chance pops are justified at this 
time. 

Temperatures will remain seasonably cool with highs in the upper 50s 
to lower 60s and lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Rain amounts 
are not expected to be excessive with high pressure returning to the 
area in its wake.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     56  42  53  36 /  20  30  20  10 
Camden AR         63  48  51  41 /  30  40  70  40 
Harrison AR       48  38  48  32 /  20  30  20  10 
Hot Springs AR    60  47  51  41 /  30  40  60  30 
Little Rock   AR  61  47  51  42 /  20  30  40  20 
Monticello AR     63  49  51  43 /  30  40  70  40 
Mount Ida AR      59  46  50  38 /  30  40  60  30 
Mountain Home AR  51  39  50  32 /  10  20  20  10 
Newport AR        56  43  53  37 /  20  30  20  10 
Pine Bluff AR     61  48  51  42 /  30  30  60  30 
Russellville AR   59  47  51  40 /  20  30  30  10 
Searcy AR         58  45  51  39 /  20  30  30  10 
Stuttgart AR      60  47  51  42 /  30  30  40  20 
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...62 / Long Term...56