807 
FXUS66 KLOX 062214
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 
214 PM PST Mon Nov 6 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather through tonight with mild temperatures and 
isolated light showers. Near normal and dry on Tuesday. Chance of 
light rain late Wednesday through Friday northern areas with 
temperatures 3-5 degrees below normal. Warming and drying likely 
over the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-THU)

Clouds associated with the weak and shearing out shortwave to our
west are having a difficult time moving east as was thought would
happen earlier. Current forecast precipitation chances for this
afternoon, let alone the increase in cloudiness, are in jeopardy
of not verifying. Very abundant sunshine this afternoon across all
of the area with the exception of some increasing cloudiness in
Santa Barbara County this hour. Will hold on to any last minute
update for this afternoon to see progress of these clouds next
couple of hours. Would not be surprised if we'll need to take down
PoPs for all but all but Santa Barbara and SLO Counties. The
low to mid-level pocket of lift that the NAM brought through the
area around 23Z today is no longer there in the 18Z run. Our local
WRF continues to show very light precipitation mainly across SBA
and VTU Counties, otherwise latest models are keeping anything
measurable well offshore. PoPs were thus lowered quite a bit for 
this evening and overnight. 

A quick hitting and weak upper ridge builds over the area for
Tuesday to completely remove any chances of precipitation and
also bringing a 5-9 degree warmup. Then the weak ridge moves east
of our area on Wednesday as heights fall just slightly due to the
large upper low off the coast of the Pacific NW building southward
some. This upper low stays well north of the area, but the
associated surface frontal boundary does get close enough to bring
precip chances to the central coast. Earlier forecasts had precip
further south, but models have trended drier southern areas as the
frontal boundary really weakens as it moves into the central 
coast. Thus have removed precip chances for areas south and kept 
it to just SBA County northward, starting Wednesday morning and 
hanging on into Thursday. Not expecting any notable storm total 
rain amounts with this system, likely peaking at around a quarter
to a maybe a half of an inch extreme NW SLO County and tailing 
off to a few hundredths further south into SBA County.

Temperatures actually warm a few more degrees on Wednesday most
areas with the exception of northern SLO that will cool some, 
then most areas will cool on Thursday to generally make it the 
coolest day of the 7-day forecast. VTU and LA Counties should see
plenty of sun on Wed and and maybe even Thu, while SBA and SLO 
Counties cloud up on Wednesday and remain cloudy on Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(FRI-MON)

Quasi-flat ridging returns on Friday as the PAC NW low fills and
moves into the northern high plains and surface high pressure
builds into northern Nevada and Utah. Some northerly pressure 
gradients forecast for Friday night that would bring some gusty 
winds into SBA County and the I-5 Corridor, but forecast gradients
are not really that strong to warrant any concern at this time. 
Temperatures warm just slightly on Friday under this broad ridging
but remain 3-5 degrees below normal under partly to mostly sunny 
skies.

Surface pressure gradients turn just slightly offshore on Saturday
and near neutral Sunday as surface high pressure continues to
build in to our northeast, but well too far northeast to give us 
any notable pressure gradient. Temps warm again on Saturday 
and Sunday to where just the coastal areas will still be a few 
degrees below normal. 

Another upper low drops into the Pac NW on Monday and drags yet 
another weakening and not so active frontal boundary into the 
central coast. Precip chances return to that area on Monday. 
Unlike the previous weakening frontal boundaries, this one will 
bring stronger northerly pressure gradients for a better chance of
stronger northerly winds in SBA County and the I-5 Corridor on
Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION...06/1800Z.

At 1733Z, there was neither a marine inversion or marine layer at
KLAX. 

Overall, good confidence in 18Z TAF package. VFR conditions are
expected for the next 24 hours. There is a 30% chance of MVFR 
CIGs at all coastal/valley sites. 

KLAX...Good confidence in 18Z TAF. VFR conditions are
expected for the next 24 hours. There is a 30% chance of MVFR 
CIGs. 

KBUR...Good confidence in 18Z TAF. VFR conditions are
expected for the next 24 hours. There is a 30% chance of MVFR 
CIGs.

&&

.MARINE...06/200 PM.

For the Outer Waters, good confidence in current forecast. Winds
and seas are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
levels through Thursday. On Friday, northwest winds are likely to
increase to SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters, good confidence in current forecast. Winds
and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels through Thursday.
On Friday, there is a chance that winds will increase to SCA
levels north of Point Sal as well as across western sections of
the southern Inner Waters.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...(THU-MON)
High surf from a south swell could develop at area beaches 
between Thursday and Saturday and bring increased chances of
dangerous rip currents.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Jackson
AVIATION...Sweet
MARINE...Sweet
SYNOPSIS...Kittell

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