773 
FXUS61 KRLX 161931
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
331 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Much cooler into Wednesday, in the wake of a cold front that
crossed last night. Dry high pressure with a warming trend for 
the latter part of the work week, and the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1120 AM Monday...

With the cold front way to our east, northerly flow will
continue to bring colder air to the area. A sfc high pressure
will build across the OH Valley, WV and the mid Atlantic states
through the rest of the week providing dry and cold conditions
through the period. Afternoon cu will be common on Tuesday. 

At night, clear skies, calm winds, dry dewpoints and cold
temperatures will allow radiational cooling to drop temperatures
below freezing across the northeast and central mountains, and
widespread frost across the lowlands. Therefore, issued a Freeze
warning for counties from Taylor county, south including
Pocahontas and Randolph continuing south into Nicholas county. A
Frost advisory has been issued for the rest of the area. Both
headlines are from midnight through 10 am Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Monday...

Surface high pressure dominates the period with very dry low- 
and mid-levels. Southern stream troughing and northern stream 
ridging on either side of the region holds off any 
precipitation- producing systems to start the period. A 
trailing cold front appended to the northern stream near the end
of the period will struggle to reach the region as high 
pressure wins out.

Clear skies and weak flow will allow for efficient radiational
cooling overnight, especially Wednesday morning where frost is 
again likely in the northern mountains and possible in the 
northern lowlands. Wednesday's cool start will drop dew points 
and thus afternoon RHs, leaving mountainous areas in the mid- to
upper-20's and other locations in the mid- to lower-30's of 
percentage RH. Thursday's RH values will be only modestly higher
given slightly lower afternoon high temps with the
aforementioned cold front washing out over our area. Light winds
limit the fire threat in spite of increasingly dry fuels.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 PM Monday...

High pressure builds behind the aforementioned cold front,
centers over the CWA Friday afternoon, and gradually shifts
eastward off the Mid-Atlantic coast with the approach of an
amplified long wave near the end of the period. The warming
trend will continue as low-level flow gains a more 
southerly/southwesterly component, though moisture beyond the
boundary layer remains scarce.

The next weather-maker in this region is currently forecast to
encroach from the West Sunday night into Monday with an
elongated cold front running North/South, bisecting the CONUS.
A chance of shower activity of some variety exists in this time
range.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 120 PM Monday...

With the cold front east of the mountains, the area remains
under northerly flow bringing dry dewpoints, except for some
moisture from Lake Erie producing light rain showers to affect
CKB and EKN early afternoon. Expect VFR/MVFR ceilings with this
activity. The rest of the area will experience diurnal cu about
5000 feet to prevail through the afternoon hours. 

Generally light northwesterly winds, with occasional gusts in 
the teens, particularly across the higher terrain.

After 00Z, the lower atmosphere should decouple causing light to
calm winds, with patchy river valley fog possible generally 
after 08Z. Temperatures will drop from the mid 30s lowlands to
the upper 20s higher elevations. This could produce frost
instead of fog. 

Broad high pressure will prevail through the rest of the week to
produce widespread VFR conditions. 


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
     
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
     
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Eastern Mountains may not improve to VFR 
as quickly as forecast. 

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
Patchy valley dense fog during the predawn hours this week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for 
     WVZ031-032-039-040-519>526.
     Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for 
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>030-033-034-515>518.
OH...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for 
     OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for 
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for 
     VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL/MC
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...MC
LONG TERM...MC
AVIATION...ARJ