144 
FXUS61 KRLX 161315
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
915 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Much cooler into Wednesday, in the wake of a cold front that
crossed last night. Dry high pressure with a warming trend for 
the latter part of the work week, and the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 915 AM Monday...

Forecast on track.

As of 615 AM Monday...

No changes necessary.

As of 355 AM Monday...

Cold front just to the east of the CWA, with just a few lingering 
light showers across the higher terrain. Expect much of the area to 
start out rather cloudy, before scattering out as the day 
progresses. Much lower dew points have already ushered into the 
area, with dew points generally in the 40s area wide. 

High pressure will continue to build east into the region today and 
tonight, with noticeably cooler temperatures. Still expecting a bit 
of wind through this afternoon, particularly in the mountainous 
counties, but will gradually decouple tonight as high pressure 
progged to be overhead. With the very dry air mass expected to be in 
place, and high overhead, expecting a night of good radiational 
cooling, with a widespread frost expected across the lowlands, and 
freezing temperatures across the mountains late tonight. Went ahead 
and issued a freeze watch for tonight/Tuesday morning across the 
higher terrain, and will allow the day shift to evaluate any 
issuance of frost advisory today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 355 AM Monday...

High pressure rules the roost this period, with cool, bone dry
weather.

Heights rise early on, as the upper level short wave trough that
drove the cool air into the area, lifts out. For Wednesday, the
northern stream jet is well north of the forecast area, the 
area itself being in a rex block between a northern stream 
ridge, and southern stream trough.

A northern stream trough pushes a cold front across the Great 
Lakes Wednesday night. The trough and cold front never get as 
far south as the forecast area. Rather, high pressure behind the
cold front bridges across Thursday, resulting in high pressure 
centered right over the area Thursday night. The end result is 
to perhaps slow the warming trend.

Lowered daytime dew points from central guidance in the very 
dry air, via a consensus MOS and global model blend, and 
lowered low temperatures from central guidance via COOP MOS. 
This yields values similar to previous forecast, with frost likely 
again Wednesday morning. RH values dip into the 20s Wednesday 
afternoon, and well down into the 30s Tuesday and Thursday 
afternoons. However, light winds will limit the fire threat.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 355 AM Monday...

High pressure continues to rule the roost Friday, before
drifting east over the the weekend. This will continue the dry 
weather, with a warming trend over the weekend, in southerly 
flow around the back side of the exiting high. The next cold 
front is progged to arrive Monday, with the chance for showers,
as the driving upper level short wave trough pushes the 
southern edge of the northern stream jet southward into the 
forecast area.

Central guidance temperatures accepted, but daytime dew points
lowered via a consensus MOS and global model blend.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 615 AM Monday...

Generally VFR conditions outside of higher terrain, where MVFR
and IFR conditions linger, including at sites KEKN and KBKW.
Still expecting all areas to be VFR by 16-18Z. Generally light
northwesterly winds, with occasional gusts in the teens,
particularly across the higher terrain.

After 00Z, winds will go light to calm, with patchy river valley
fog possible generally after 08Z. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
     
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
     
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Higher terrain may not improve to VFR as
quickly as forecast. 

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
Patchy dense overnight and morning valley fog this week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for 
     WVZ031-032-039-040-517>526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...SL