National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDFSD
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDFSD
Product Timestamp: 2017-10-03 11:01 UTC
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931 FXUS63 KFSD 031101 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 601 AM CDT Tue Oct 3 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 418 AM CDT Tue Oct 3 2017 Impressive upper level jet lifting north through the Western High Plains with a broad area of showers and thunderstorms to the east. While there were a few severe storms late yesterday afternoon, the main focus of this event was heavy rainfall. The exception was a small cluster of storms that moved quickly enough to overtake the surface front around Sibley and Bigelow around 230 am. A few shallow vortices, a couple pretty strong, developed but then weakened pretty quickly. Interestingly on the water vapor and IR loops a small area of subsidence developed near the Big Sioux River between FSD and SUX and shifted east about 15 minutes before the stronger updraft developed and the better wind signatures showed up. As this strong upper level jet lifts north the showers and thunderstorms will continue to weaken and shift east. Residual mid level moisture may allow a few showers to continue into the morning hours but coverage will quickly dwindle by late morning. Model soundings suggest that cloud cover will quickly erode through the day so that partly cloudy skies are expected by afternoon. However with a cool air mass in place highs will still only be in the 60s. High pressure will settle down the Missouri River Valley late tonight and allow light winds to develop in south central SD. While widespread frost is not expected, patchy frost in low lying areas is possible. No advisory at this time but something to keep an eye out on. Lows should vary from the mid 30s in central SD to the mid 40s in northwest IA. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 418 AM CDT Tue Oct 3 2017 Tail of upper jet pulls away on Wednesday through the northern Great Lakes on Wednesday, allowing ridging aloft to become reestablished across the region. Surface ridge drifting across the area will provide a dry and pleasant day, just a bit cooler than normal. Gradually through Wednesday night, elevated warm advection will strengthen and will likely see scattered showers build northeastward across the Missouri River in the later night hours. Indications are there would be several hundred J/kg of elevated instability, so perhaps even a few thunderstorms as far north as I-90, but much more coverage potential toward northeast Nebraska and far southern portions of northwest Iowa. Threat for showers and storms will continue Thursday, more prevalent further south of I-90, in zone of persistent isentropic lift. Main warm front at surface will be tied up closer to I-80, and this will leave a largely cool, cloudy and dreary day to the north, with temps at best into the lower 60s. A little more agreement today on handling of the hangback energy across the western U.S. from early this week, that begins to pull eastward as a sharp upper trough Friday into early Saturday. High precipitation probabilities remain favored with persistence of moisture transport and the increasing large scale lift ahead of trough through Friday evening. Will have to watch for some areas of heavy rainfall again for Thursday into Friday, as moisture content of the airmass will be fairly high and sets up an efficient overrunning pattern with main low-level front hanging up to the south. Precipitation should end fairly quickly Friday night into early Sat. from west to east with sharp nature of lift forcing with the short wavelength trough. Saturday looks like the warmest day of the next seven, with southwest flow quickly rebounding with increasing sunshine during the day. The turn to west/southwest flow is a result of the next upstream large-scale trough which is forecast to dig into the northern Plains through early next week. Models have some differences in when the more significant cooling occurs with various energy swinging through the large scale trough. For now, have settled on the blended guidance which falls in line with a secondary system dropping in later Sunday night or early Monday, with just a small chance for a shower along trough axis. Some of the models suggest colder air would bring along risk of first more widespread frost threat by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) Issued at 558 AM CDT Tue Oct 3 2017 MVFR and IFR ceilings will shift east this morning along with the rainfall chances. A small chance for thunderstorms will be in place through about 14z in parts of northwest IA. Otherwise after about 18z some diurnal cumulus clouds mostly from 3000 feet to 5000 feet are expected, then clearing overnight. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM...Chapman AVIATION...08