National Weather Service Raw Text Product
Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDFFC Product Timestamp: 2017-09-15 19:18 UTC
Previous in Time Latest Product Next in Time
View All KFFC Products for 15 Sep 2017 View All AFD Products for 15 Sep 2017 View As Image Download As Text
516 FXUS62 KFFC 151918 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 318 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/... Weak high pressure remains over the area, but upper level disturbance moving across south Georgia tomorrow will provide enough focus and moisture to produce isolated to scattered precipitation. For now, have still generally limited pops to slight chance to chance, and kept pops over central/middle Georgia. Temperatures will remain near normal, and have gone with a blend of the model guidance. 31 .LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/... Only a few adjustments were necessary with the extended forecast. After a dry start to the long term period, have continued with slight chance to chance pops each day Wednesday through Friday. Previous forecast discussion is included below. 31 /Issued 418 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017/ Long term forecast period expected to be characterized by long wave troughing across the Western US, with ridging downstream across the Eastern US. Convection across western and southern portions of the CWA should begin to wind down Saturday night as responsible shortwave trough begins to depart to the east and sfc high pressure centered across the NE dominates lower level flow. High pressure should continue to keep most areas dry on Sunday, though isolated convection looks possible across western zones where enhanced Gulf moisture /evidenced by higher dewpoints/ will be advected north ahead of a cold front moving across the Midwest. Convection would wane into the overnight. Early next week, cyclonic flow over the western US will begin to deepen as weak ridging continues to dominate the pattern across the East and SE. Expect the area to be generally dry through mid week...tho subtropical jet will be oriented W-E across the lower CONUS as northern stream flow regime amplifies, keeping moisture in place across the CWA. This along with warm afternoon temps may allow for isolated diurnal convection. Mid week through the remainder of the extended could featured higher rain chances as western trough continues to dig S and H5 pattern becomes even more amplified. Given normal discrepancy between deterministic models at this point and no notable feature(s) seen in ensemble data...did not raise POPs too much yet. TROPICS: Jose still expected to meander north as a hurricane into next week,posing no threat to the SE. NHC has outlined two potential systems south and west of the Cape Verde Islands which are expected to move west over the next week. Will have to watch these closely but it is too soon to assume any US threat. Kovacik && .AVIATION... 18Z Update... VFR through the period, except for potential MVFR visibilities developing between 08-10z Saturday, and lasting until 14z. Winds will remain light and variable through this afternoon, going calm overnight. Winds will come up on the east side Saturday morning at 6kt or less. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... Medium on wind direction. High on all other elements. 31 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 64 84 64 84 / 0 10 5 5 Atlanta 66 84 66 85 / 0 10 5 5 Blairsville 58 79 58 80 / 5 20 5 20 Cartersville 64 85 64 85 / 0 10 5 5 Columbus 70 86 69 88 / 5 40 20 5 Gainesville 63 83 64 83 / 0 10 5 5 Macon 67 85 66 86 / 5 20 10 5 Rome 63 85 63 86 / 0 10 0 5 Peachtree City 65 84 65 85 / 0 20 5 5 Vidalia 70 88 69 87 / 5 20 5 5 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...31 LONG TERM....31 AVIATION...31