374 
FXUS62 KJAX 300647
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
247 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2017

.NEAR TERM.../Through Tonight/...

Trough of low pressure will lift from NE FL this morning, into SE
GA this afternoon. This feature will be the focus for convection 
Today, with showers and storms along and North of this boundary. 
The boundary will lift to the North of the region Tonight, with 
precipitation diminishing around sunset this evening. 

Temperatures will be near normal over NE FL Today, and a little 
below normal over SE GA due to the precipitation.

.SHORT TERM /Thursday Through Friday Night/...

Thursday: The upper level ridge is forecast to build eastward 
from the western Atlantic into the central Florida peninsula, with
Harvey rounding the northwestern side of the ridge. Flow aloft 
will be out of the southwest, with 500mb temperatures -6 to -7C. 
Any lingering troughing and shear is forecast to push to the north
of the region, with drier conditions forecast compared to 
Wednesday. Low level flow will be southerly, so sea breezes will 
push inland. A few strong storms are possible. Highs will be in 
the low to mid 90s, with lows in the 70s. 

Friday: The upper level ridge weakens slightly and slides to the
south as the remnants of Harvey move through the Tennessee 
Valley. The flow will become more southwesterly at all levels, 
with the Gulf coast sea breeze becoming dominant. Remnant moisture
from Harvey moves into the area, with precipitable water values 
rising back to 2 to 2.2 inches. In addition, weak surface 
troughing along the GA/FL border should result in higher coverage 
of showers and storms. Strong to isolated severe storms are 
possible, with 500mb temps cooling to -8 to -9C, the coolest aloft
in quite some time. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible. 
Highs are forecast to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with lows 
in the 70s. 

.LONG TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...

Deep tropical moisture, with precipitable water values >2 inches,
will continue to pump into at least northeast Florida from the 
southwest on Saturday as the remnants of Harvey move into the Ohio
Valley, and the subtropical ridge gets shunted to the east over 
the western Atlantic. Models are coming into better agreement with
the deeper moisture continuing to shift east to southeast with 
time on Saturday, with slightly drier air moving into southeast 
Georgia later in the day. High pressure will be to the north to 
northwest of the region on Sunday, with troughing aloft pushing 
towards the FL/GA border. Drier air may move into southeast 
Georgia aloft on the back side of the troughing, leading to lower 
rain chances. Deeper moisture is forecast to still remain across 
northeast Florida. Surface high pressure across south Florida 
edges northward across north-central Florida Sun and Mon with a 
lighter steering flow supporting both sea breezes to develop each 
day with a merger and isolated to scattered storms focused inland 
generally between I-75/St. Johns River basin each aftn/evening. 
Tuesday the ridge axis retreats south and SW steering flow 
increases as a mean trough begins to deepens south of the Great 
Lakes with a increase in precip potential across the area due to 
less subsidence over the area. 

Temperatures will trend near to above normal values with highs in
the upper 80s to low 90s with minimum temperatures in the
70s. 

&&

.AVIATION...
Stratus is expected across the region Tonight into Wednesday, 
with heights lifting during the day. A few showers will be 
possible this morning, with a few storms possible this afternoon. 

&&

.MARINE...
A trough of low pressure will lift North across area waters Today,
and to the North Tonight. High pressure will build to the 
Northeast then East on Thursday. High pressure will be to the East
into the weekend. A trough of low pressure is expected to move 
Southeast across the region over the weekend.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents through Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  84  71  93  74 /  40  20  30  20 
SSI  84  76  89  79 /  50  30  20  20 
JAX  87  73  92  76 /  30  10  20  20 
SGJ  88  76  90  77 /  30  10  20  30 
GNV  90  73  93  75 /  10  10  30  10 
OCF  90  73  93  75 /  10  10  30  30 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Struble/Kennedy/