National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDCRP
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDCRP
Product Timestamp: 2017-07-25 11:42 UTC
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486 FXUS64 KCRP 251142 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 642 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017 .DISCUSSION... See Aviation below for 12Z TAF update. && .AVIATION... Broken areas of MVFR cigs moving past ALI/CRP/VCT will lift and clear within the next couple of hours, and VFR will persist through the remainder of the period. Light southerly winds early this morning will increase to a moderate gusty flow by the mid to late morning. Winds will back to the southeast during the afternoon, gradually diminishing in the evening and overnight. An isolated shower may impact develop within the vicinity of VCT this morning, though coverage is expected to be rather limited. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 426 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017/ SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)... The upper level ridge remains centered over north Texas and the Southern Plains with a weak shear axis angled across the region. GOES-16 Total Precipitable Water imager shows a plume of higher moisture moving north into the region this morning. Isolated streamer showers across the coastal waters and Coastal Bend will be possible this morning. An isolated thunderstorm may develop along the sea breeze this afternoon, though most locations will remain dry. Slightly above normal PWAT values (above 2 inches) will maintain a slight chance for thunderstorms across eastern portions of the region tomorrow. Temperatures today will be a few degrees less hot compared to yesterday with higher moisture across the region. However, higher dewpoints will bring more widespread heat index values of 105 to 109 degrees across the region today. Isolated locations may briefly touch 110 degree heat index values for less than two hours this afternoon. Tomorrow will bring even higher heat index values, and a heat advisory may be needed for portions of the region. LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)... GFS/ECMWF deterministic predict the upper ridge to build over the south central CONUS then orient NW-SE from TX to the Rockies while an upper trough develops over the ERN CONUS, during the period. Isolated convection expected over the ERN CWA/MSA Wednesday Night/Thursday. Drying associated with the building upper ridge expected over the CWA/MSA. The GFS deterministic predicts PWAT values to fall below normal by Friday and thus preclude significant precipitation. The foregoing upper pattern transition will contribute to a weak frontal boundary that is expected to enter TX later in the period. The GFS ensemble mean depict the boundary to enter central TX Saturday then stall. The proximity of the boundary and associated moisture convergence expected to increase the chance for convection over the CWA/MSA Sunday/Monday. Maximum Heat Index values generally 105-109 during the period. Brief Heat Advisory conditions may occur at some locations Thursday through Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 95 78 96 78 95 / 20 10 20 10 20 Victoria 96 77 97 77 97 / 20 10 20 10 20 Laredo 102 79 103 78 103 / 10 10 10 10 10 Alice 99 77 100 76 100 / 20 10 20 10 20 Rockport 95 82 95 81 90 / 20 10 20 10 20 Cotulla 101 77 103 76 103 / 10 10 10 10 10 Kingsville 97 78 98 77 98 / 20 10 20 10 20 Navy Corpus 94 83 94 82 89 / 20 10 20 10 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ LB/84...AVIATION