120 
FXUS61 KBGM 211529
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1129 AM EDT Wed Jun 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
this afternoon across the southern tier, western Catskills and
northeast Pennsylvania. A few storms may become strong with 
small hail and gusty winds. Temperatures will warm Thursday and 
Friday with more showers and thunderstorms as well. Mild 
temperatures expected into the weekend with decreasing chances 
for precipitation.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1130 AM update...Current forecast in good shape just minor 
adjustments to short term temperatures and pops. Scattered to
isolated convection still expected across the southern half of 
the forecast area this afternoon. Model soundings show inverted
V in the low levels so strong gusty winds will be possible with
any stronger convection. 

3 am update... 
Main concerns in the near term remain focused around the passing 
rain showers this morning...the potential for showers and storms 
this afternoon...patchy fog tonight...and the onset of more showers 
and storms Thursday afternoon. 

Upper level short wave is riding ewd through the ern Great Lakes 
this morning with a band of rain showers associated with it. A weak 
surface inflection will drag across the region today and remain 
draped along the NY/PA border into the afternoon. This front will 
combine with around 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE, 40 kts of deep layer 
shear, steep lapse rates and a modest amount of deep layer moisture 
to trigger scatter showers and storms. There is the potential for a 
few of these storms to become strong, with small hail and gusty 
winds the main threats. At this time the most favorable area for 
convection appears to be over the Catskills and portions of ne PA. 
Areas further to the north should be situated within a much drier 
air mass and not be under the influence of forcing from the surface 
boundary.

Weak high pressure builds in later today and tonight with skies 
attempting to clear out. As this occurs under weak large scale 
suppression and a surface high and light/calm winds, the possibility 
for valley fog increases. There should be patchy valley fog late 
tonight and Thursday morning...mainly aligned in areas that see 
precipitation this afternoon. 

The surface high shifts to the east Thursday morning as the next 
upper wave rides ewd embedded within a quasi-zonal flow. Strong WAA 
will develop as deep layer moisture increases as well, The 
combination of all these factors will allow rain showers to initiate 
over the srn/swrn Great Lakes early Thursday afternoon...and fill in 
as the system moves east in NY and PA through the afternoon. 

Temperatures today will warm into the 70s with relatively low dew 
points in the 50s. Lows tonight will fall into the 50s. A slightly 
warmer and more humid day is expected Thursday with highs topping 
out in the 70s and lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
3 am update...

This will be the period to watch with first a warm front then a
cold front. Widespread rain expected. Amounts right now look to
be around an inch. Higher amounts possible due to thunderstorms.
Precipitable water amounts over 1.5 inches Friday afternoon and
evening. The good news is the cold front will go through Friday
evening and should keep tropical storm Cindy well to our south.

Warm front Thursday night pushing east into the area. Best
chances of showers across the north. Weak ridging aloft Thursday
evening before the trough slowly nears. Surface low moves 
northeast from the Midwest to Ontario. Pops rise to likely 
Friday morning then categorical in NY during the afternoon. 
Showers and scattered thunderstorms continue into the evening. 
Late Friday night chance of showers decrease behind the cold 
front. Thunderstorms possible with moderate wind shear and
instability Thursday night to Friday evening.

Temperatures will be the warmest of the coming week with lows in
the 60s and Friday highs in the 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
3 am update...
Little change to this period. Unsettled with weak waves setting
off mostly showers entire period. Better chance in NY but still
only chance pops with no good focus for forcing. Cold air aloft
under a broad upper level trough. Temperatures near or slightly
below normal. 

previous discussion...
Cold front will continue making its way through the region 
Friday evening with high chance pops everywhere. 
Saturday/Saturday night, now looks dry as surface high pressure 
briefly builds into the area. Sunday into early next week looks 
unsettled again as the next upper level trough and associated 
surface features move through the Great Lakes region. Will 
continue to carry chance pops through Monday.

Temperatures through the period will be near or slightly below
seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions today. Will likely see afternoon cumulus 
clouds scattered across the area, with a few showers and/or 
storms over ne PA. Not enough confidence to include precip 
mention, but the best chance appears to be at KAVP. Skies clear 
out late this evening with fog possibly developing at KELM and 
KAVP between 06-12Z.

SW surface winds around 5 kt overnight, will become W-NW on
Wednesday at 8-10 with gusts 15-20 kt. Winds become light and
variable or calm tonight. 

Outlook... 

Thursday...VFR after morning fog.

Late Thursday through Friday night...Showers and chance of 
thunderstorms, especially Friday, with associated restrictions.

Saturday - Sunday...Mostly VFR, but shower/storm and brief 
restriction possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJT/RRM
NEAR TERM...BJT/RRM
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...BJT/MLJ