156 
FXUS61 KRLX 202348
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
748 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure tonight. Weak disturbance Wednesday with a shower
possible north. Tropical moisture to bring showers and
thunderstorms to end the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM...

Tonight will be dominated by high pressure with dry conditions
and light flow. A weak upper disturbance and frontal system in
northwest flow aloft, will skirt the northern zones Wednesday. 
There is a modest return flow ahead of this system and modest 
instability across the north. The end result is that this system
will mainly affect the northern half of the area with clouds 
late tonight and Wednesday, with just enough moisture,
instability and dynamics ahead of the front to bring a few 
showers or a storm across the far north. However, nothing heavy
or widespread is expected as the front itself will get hung up 
to our north. The central and south will just see some clouds 
Wednesday, but also a good deal of sunshine will also be 
present. Temperatures tonight will be down around 60 degrees 
with dry air still in place. Temperatures Wednesday will range 
from the lower 80s north to the upper 80s south. Much of the 
activity will diminish late Wednesday with the loss of heating 
and with the disturbance moving out. Not expecting widespread or
dense fog for the most part tonight, given some increase in mid
or higher clouds and some flow above the surface.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 315 PM Tuesday...

A relatively weak upper level ripple may lead to some isolated
showers and thunderstorms on Thursday, but moisture will be
pretty limited.

Moisture quickly increases Friday as a leading slug of tropical
moisture and some upper level energy sheds off Cindy and gets 
caught up in the overall synoptic flow, lifting NE out of the 
Gulf ahead of the upper trough. This looks to move through the 
southern and central Appalachians Thursday night and Friday. The
surface circulation of Cindy will still be in eastern TX at 
this point.

This initial slug could definitely contain some heavy rainfall,
but after several dry days we should be able to handle a decent
amount of water. Still...cannot rule out isolated issues
starting to crop up.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 PM Tuesday...

Quite a bit of uncertainty remains for the weekend. Models
continue to show a strong cold front pushing our way from the NW
Friday night into Saturday, with the remnants of Cindy 
approaching from the SW. The timing on how all of this comes 
together will have a very large impact in the weather we get out
of it. Models continue to show the potential for heavy 
rainfall, but differ some on the location. While confidence is
low, any additional heavy rain could lead to flooding concerns.
Will continue mention in HWO for now. 

The ECMWF shows a secondary cold front Sunday, the GFS is not
quite as robust with it, but opted to include some slight chance
to chance POPs with this as well. Cooler air settles in late
Sunday into Monday with below normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 745 PM Tuesday...

Weak to calm flow as a dry high pressure builds tonight for
widespread VFR conditions. The exception will be along the
protected river valleys like EKN and CRW which dense fog could
develop during the predawn hours. 

A weak upper disturbance skirting across the north Wednesday. 
Mainly mid clouds and a few showers will accompany this system 
across the north Wednesday, while the central and south will 
only see some mid- high clouds. Brief periods of IFR/LIFR will 
be possible with the heavier showers. 


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...
     
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High, but medium with fog tonight.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: River valley fog may be more widespread if
winds decouple more and clouds are delayed.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            WED 06/21/17
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Friday into Saturday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...ARJ