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047 FXUS64 KMAF 051657 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1157 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2017 .DISCUSSION... See aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected at the west Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals the next 24 hours. Winds will generally be north to east at less than 10 mph. 12 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 544 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2017/ DISCUSSION... The latest Aviation Discussion is included below. AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail areawide today. Isolated thunderstorms may develop this afternoon and could affect KCNM and KPEQ. Since probability is so low for TSRA at any terminals, will not include. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 359 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2017/ The upper low that brought beneficial rains to the area over the past few days will continue to slide southeast toward the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, an upper ridge has been building to our west and northerly flow has developed aloft in between the two systems. Today looks fairly dry given subsidence on the backside of the upper low, but a few storms could make their way into western portions of the area off the higher terrain of NM. This will be the main story over the coming days as several disturbances are slated to ride south along the lee of the Rockies through midweek. SE NM and areas along and west of the Pecos River will be the favored axis of precipitation during this time. Upslope flow and strong instability will likely lead to thunderstorm development across E NM which should then slide south through the evening. Storms could form into one or more complexes as they move toward are area Tuesday evening. Severe storms will be possible given increasing instability and shear. Something similar may occur Wednesday as another disturbance moves south along the front range. Temperatures through midweek will be near to slightly below normal. Late next week, a large upper trough is expected to develop across the western U.S. West to southwesterly flow will develop aloft while a dryline develops at the surface over our area. Temperatures will get hot, likely back to near 100, but this could lead to thunderstorm development along the dryline. Models disagree with how the trough will progress across the country in the extended so won't change much in the current forecast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 65 88 66 89 / 10 10 10 10 Carlsbad 65 93 65 92 / 10 20 40 20 Dryden 70 92 70 91 / 10 10 10 10 Fort Stockton 66 91 67 93 / 10 10 20 10 Guadalupe Pass 64 86 63 88 / 10 20 40 20 Hobbs 63 88 62 88 / 10 10 40 20 Marfa 59 88 59 87 / 10 10 30 20 Midland Intl Airport 66 90 66 91 / 10 10 20 10 Odessa 66 90 66 90 / 10 10 20 10 Wink 66 93 67 93 / 10 10 30 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && $$ 67/29