898 
FXUS65 KBYZ 030847
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT 
247 AM MDT Sat Jun 3 2017

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Sun...

Upper ridge building over the region will bring us a very warm 
and mostly dry weekend. Expect high temps well into the 80s today,
and upper 80s to mid 90s Sunday, with 700mb temps rising to near 
+12C by Sunday. Despite the very warm conditions we will not quite
reach daily records, as June 4th is the earliest date that 
Billings has ever reached 100 degrees (in 1988).

Trof off the Pacific coast will kick inland on Sunday and lift
thru the northern Rockies Sunday night. Weak ascent in the late
afternoon and evening, combined with diurnal instability, should
allow isolated tstms to develop over and near our western
mountains...though the much greater coverage of convection will be
well to our west in northern ID and western MT. Any storms in our
western cwa will be fairly high-based and could produce erratic
surface winds. Have expanded coverage of isolated tstms from 
21-06z to include places like Livingston, Big Timber, Red Lodge 
and Harlowton. Pacific cold front will reach our western areas by
late Sunday night.

JKL

.LONG TERM...valid for Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...

Several changes to the extended forecast once again this morning.
Although Monday continues to be interesting, of greatest concern
may be upper level ridging for the end of the workweek. 

A weak cold front will push across the area through the day
Monday.  Instability and lapse rates ahead of the cold front will
be increasing across the eastern zones. CAPE values will be in 
the 1500-2000 J/kg range for most of the area from Miles City and 
Broadus east. SPC has placed central and eastern zones in a Marginal
risk at this time. That said, shear does not look as good as 
would like to see, so could limit potential for stronger storms. 
Additionally, the cold front is progged to move through very 
quickly, placing best chances for strong storms in eastern most 
zones and right along the MT/ND/SD border. 

Through the remainder of the week, the ridge axis appears to
remain centered over eastern Montana. Have pared back pops
through the period, but kept isold pops in the high terrain, some
southwesterly flow may result in shower potential. 

Friday is also looking pretty interesting as next Pacific Low
shifts eastward, greatly amplifying the upper level ridge over 
the region for Friday afternoon/evening before bringing front 
through the region overnight. 700mb temps in the mid to upper
teens, decent mixing, and potential for prefrontal warming point
to highs well into the 90s in most locations, and Miles City could
flirt with the century mark. Cold front will cool things off
significantly for Saturday. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

Expect VFR conditions to continue, with no aviation concerns
expected. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 085 059/092 061/083 051/079 052/083 054/091 059/097
    0/U 00/U    12/W    11/B    12/T    11/U    11/B
LVM 083 050/090 052/078 044/078 046/083 047/088 051/091
    0/U 02/T    22/B    22/T    21/U    21/B    11/B
HDN 087 054/095 057/087 051/081 052/087 054/093 059/098
    0/U 00/U    12/W    11/B    12/T    11/U    11/B
MLS 087 059/095 066/089 054/080 052/083 055/090 061/100
    0/U 00/U    02/T    21/U    12/T    01/U    11/B
4BQ 086 056/093 060/090 052/079 052/083 054/090 059/094
    0/U 00/U    02/T    21/B    12/T    01/U    11/B
BHK 083 053/091 058/088 051/077 047/079 051/085 055/092
    0/U 00/U    02/T    31/U    12/T    11/U    12/T
SHR 084 050/090 053/085 049/077 049/082 053/089 056/093
    0/U 01/U    13/T    11/B    22/T    22/T    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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