National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDBMX
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDBMX
Product Timestamp: 2017-05-06 23:35 UTC
Bulk Download
Bulk Download Help
This bulk download tool provides the NWS text
in a raw form, hopefully directly usable by your processing system.
You can either provide a complete 6-character PIL/AFOS ID or provide
the 3-character base ID (e.g., AFD). The start and end
dates represent 00 UTC for those dates. The Zip format is useful as
the filenames will have the product timestamp, which is useful for
when the product format has ambiguous timestamps.
953 FXUS64 KBMX 062335 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 635 PM CDT Sat May 6 2017 .UPDATE... For 00Z Aviation and early This Evening. && .SHORT TERM... This Afternoon and Tonight. Update...raised pops from likely to categorical for the areas near Centre, Gadsden, Oneonta, and Jacksonville. Showers and a few thunderstorms will hold on along a secondary front moving down from the north. The activity should keep its trend of diminishing but delayed it a few hours. Additionally, the gusty winds will hold on an hour or so and diminish by 9 pm. 75 A secondary cold front associated with the weak surface low is evident as a fine line on radar imagery with a wind shift and towering cumulus as well. Showers and a couple thunderstorms have begun to develop along the front. CAMs indicate a broken line of showers and a couple embedded storms continuing to form in TN this afternoon and pushing southward into northeast AL. Moisture is very limited with dewpoints barely reaching the low 50s right ahead of the front. 500 mb height falls will miss the region, and mid- level temperatures will be cool but warming with time. But there will be enough upper- level forcing and low-level convergence for this line to reach our far northeast counties by late this afternoon, with the best coverage in Cherokee County. Gusty winds will be possible with this line but should remain below severe limits due to very weak instability. The line should be weakening/dissipating across the northern counties this evening as it becomes separated from the mid-level moisture axis and daytime heating is lost. Winds will shift to the north behind the front, decreasing towards sunrise. Lows will be in the upper 40s to low 50s, with some lower 40s in the far northeast. 32/Davis .LONG TERM... Sunday through Friday. A warming trend will continue on Sunday as the trough over the eastern CONUS gradually moves away from our area. The pattern will become rather stagnant and blocky through midweek with a trough persisting over the Northeast and Southwest Conus. In between the troughs, an upper-level ridge will be parked over the South Central states. This will result in dry and warm conditions across the forecast area through Wednesday. Eventually the trough to our west will begin to interact with the trough to our northeast, causing a trough ejection across Texas and into the Southeast states on Thursday and Friday. Showers and storms appear likely on Thursday night into Friday as this occurs. 87/Grantham && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF Discussion. --VFR conditions tonight through Sunday-- Fair characterizes the next 24-hours of flight conditions, with one aside; a front will move into central Alabama this evening, with a decaying line of showers. The line (located in far northern Alabama as of 23:30Z/6:30PM) is quite thin, and confidence is low on whether this activity will hold together long enough to meet vicinity requirements across the northern terminals (a 10-20% chance overall). If vicinity or on-terminal showers were to occur, it'd be during a very brief window toward mid-late evening. For now, I've simply gone with an increase in cloudiness as I anticipate that to be the end result of this frontal passage. Otherwise, gusty Saturday afternoon winds will diminish just after sunset, with calm-light breezes overnight becoming ~5-10 knots post-sunrise Sunday. Trajectories will sway from ~westerly this evening, to ~northerly overnight, to ~northwesterly on Sunday. 89^GSatterwhite && .FIRE WEATHER... A few showers and perhaps an isolated storm will be possible across the north late this afternoon and early this evening. Dry conditions are expected Sunday through midweek. Recent rainfall will should prevent any fire weather concerns. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 46 73 45 79 53 / 20 0 0 0 0 Anniston 48 73 47 79 54 / 20 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 52 75 51 82 59 / 20 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 52 78 50 83 57 / 10 0 0 0 0 Calera 51 75 52 82 58 / 10 0 0 0 0 Auburn 53 74 52 80 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 53 81 53 84 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 Troy 52 80 49 83 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/... None. && $$