National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDBMX
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDBMX
Product Timestamp: 2017-05-06 19:40 UTC
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212 FXUS64 KBMX 061940 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 240 PM CDT Sat May 6 2017 .SHORT TERM... This Afternoon and Tonight. Temperatures have warmed up nicely today due to mostly clear skies and gusty west winds. A mid-level speed max is currently diving southward down the back side of the deep East Coast trough while a weak surface low is quickly moving through central TN. This will maintain the pressure gradient over the region even as the main surface low lifts into Quebec. West winds will continue to be sustained around 10-15 kts with gusts to 20-25 kts this afternoon. Forecast wind gusts do barely exceed wind advisory criteria (30 kts) in the higher terrain of Cherokee County (Lookout Mountain) but coverage is not great enough for a wind advisory. A secondary cold front associated with the weak surface low is evident as a fine line on radar imagery with a wind shift and towering cumulus as well. Showers and a couple thunderstorms have begun to develop along the front. CAMs indicate a broken line of showers and a couple embedded storms continuing to form in TN this afternoon and pushing southward into northeast AL. Moisture is very limited with dewpoints barely reaching the low 50s right ahead of the front. 500 mb height falls will miss the region, and mid- level temperatures will be cool but warming with time. But there will be enough upper- level forcing and low-level convergence for this line to reach our far northeast counties by late this afternoon, with the best coverage in Cherokee County. Gusty winds will be possible with this line but should remain below severe limits due to very weak instability. The line should be weakening/dissipating across the northern counties this evening as it becomes separated from the mid-level moisture axis and daytime heating is lost. Winds will shift to the north behind the front, decreasing towards sunrise. Lows will be in the upper 40s to low 50s, with some lower 40s in the far northeast. 32/Davis .LONG TERM... Sunday through Friday. A warming trend will continue on Sunday as the trough over the eastern CONUS gradually moves away from our area. The pattern will become rather stagnant and blocky through midweek with a trough persisting over the Northeast and Southwest Conus. In between the troughs, an upper-level ridge will be parked over the South Central states. This will result in dry and warm conditions across the forecast area through Wednesday. Eventually the trough to our west will begin to interact with the trough to our northeast, causing a trough ejection across Texas and into the Southeast states on Thursday and Friday. Showers and storms appear likely on Thursday night into Friday as this occurs. 87/Grantham && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF Discussion. A mid level trough located over the western Ohio River Valley will dive southeast this afternoon and evening, providing support for increasing clouds late this afternoon and into the evening across the northern and especially northeast terminal sites. CIG's are expected to remain above MVFR/IFR thresholds. A small potential for SHRA will exist this evening at BHM/ASN/ANB late this afternoon through tonight but probabilities remain too low to mention. Gusty southwest winds will result in the lower levels this afternoon and early evening due to deep vertical mixing. Expect lighter winds overnight with decreasing clouds very early Sunday morning. 05 && .FIRE WEATHER... A few showers and perhaps an isolated storm will be possible across the north late this afternoon and early this evening. Dry conditions are expected Sunday through midweek. Recent rainfall will should prevent any fire weather concerns. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 46 73 45 79 53 / 20 0 0 0 0 Anniston 48 73 47 79 54 / 20 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 52 75 51 82 59 / 20 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 52 78 50 83 57 / 10 0 0 0 0 Calera 51 75 52 82 58 / 10 0 0 0 0 Auburn 53 74 52 80 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 53 81 53 84 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 Troy 52 80 49 83 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/... None. && $$