938 
FXUS61 KRLX 021831
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
231 PM EDT Sun Apr 2 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slides east tonight.  A series of low pressure 
systems will affect the area Monday through Tuesday, and the 
second Wednesday night through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

As of 220 PM Sunday...

High pressure shifts well off to our east tonight. Mid to upper
level clouds will be on the increase overnight as warm front
approaches from the southwest. Moist southeast flow will advect
low stratus across east facing slopes of the West Virginia 
mountains by Monday morning.  

Elsewhere, there may be some filtered sunshine through cirrus
early on in the day with clouds lowering and thickening as we
head into the afternoon. Temperatures will still be quite warm
even with the cloud cover with highs in the low 70s. Showers and
storms will start to push in from the southwest tomorrow by
early afternoon with warm front reaching Kentucky. Heaviest rain
will likely occur during the short term period of the forecast
with highest amounts now expected over the mountains.  

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 255 AM Sunday...

Monday upper level trough and surface frontal system arrives
with the next chances for rain and possible thunder as they lift
northeastward into the Ohio Valley. Axes of rain have shifted a
bit to focus more on the mountains for the higher amounts, so
lesser amounts in the forecast over the harder hit areas from 
this past Thursday night and Friday are welcome. The change in 
airmass is not drastic, but will knock temps down and keep some 
lingering precipitation in the mountains. Drying is in full 
swing Thursday night ahead of the next system in the extended 
forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 255 AM Sunday...

The Wednesday night/Thursday system looks to be the more 
prolific rain maker and stronger contrast in airmasses with a 
merger of the southern and northern upper level troughs. 
Strengthening should occur as the trough swings through, so the 
enhanced dynamics will likely bring higher amounts of rain, with
thunderstorms on the leading edge. Lots to sort out until then,
but the rain on Monday will play a role in potential hydrologic
issues given the saturated soil conditions that will likely be 
present area- wide. Also something to consider with the 
deepening closed low will be the winds behind the front, some 
light snow in the mountains, and freeze potential for the 
lowlands during the overnights.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 PM Sunday...

Mostly VFR conditions expected with high pressure in control.
Clouds will start to increase overnight and MVFR conditions will
be possible along eastern facing slopes as southeast flow
develops. IFR will be possible as well Monday morning at BKW but
not enough confidence at this time to put in TAF.   


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
     
  
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
     
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR possible at BKW with SE upslope flow
Monday morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...

IFR possible Monday night into Tuesday with rain.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MPK