AFOS product AFDOTX
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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDOTX
Product Timestamp: 2017-03-28 09:44 UTC

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299 
FXUS66 KOTX 280944
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
244 AM PDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

Rain and mountain snow shower chances return this morning and will
spread south through the day, with light amounts this afternoon.
This comes ahead of another round of widespread moderate 
precipitation that will arrive Tuesday night and last until early 
Thursday. Friday will bring a dry break period before more 
unsettled weather for next weekend.



&&

.DISCUSSION...


Today and tonight...A few orographically forced showers linger in 
the panhandle mountains this morning with scattered low level 
clouds relegated mainly to Idaho. Most of eastern Washington saw 
clearing skies overnight which allowed most to cool into the low 
to mid 30s. Given the moist BL, light winds, and clear skies, some
fog is possible in the northern valleys early this morning. IR 
satellite currently shows high clouds streaming in from the 
northwest, slowly advancing toward the WA/ID border by mid to late
morning. Cloud cover will continue to be on the increase through 
the day in advance of our next wet system later today into 
Wednesday. 

Light isentropically forced rain and mountain snow will overspread
the region today enhanced by a mid level warm front moving in from
the southwest. This precip will spread southward through the day
ahead of the main event Tuesday night into Wednesday. Overall
amounts will be light for Tuesday's rain with most only seeing a
couple hundredths if that, especially in the basin. This system
does has an ample fetch of moisture that moves in by Wednesday
morning with PWATs around a quarter inch entering the southern
zones. /bwilliam

Wednesday through Thursday Night: A warm front will spread into 
the area Wednesday followed by a cold front Wednesday night into 
Thursday morning. Then Thursday the trough moves through the 
western US. The atmospheric river will punch inland with 
widespread rain expected. Have kept our chance of precipitation 
for Wed near 100%. The latest models are showing a heavier band of
rain and mountain snow continuing across portions of southeast WA
and the southern ID Panhandle Wednesday night and Thursday. Have 
adjust the amount of precipitation expected across the region Wed 
through Thur. The central WA valleys should see a tenth to a 
quarter of an inch. Then as you head east the amounts will 
increase. NE WA and N ID will see 0.40-0.60. Then as you head 
south into SE WA and the southern ID Panhandle they could see 
0.75-1.00 of liquid as the rain will persist at times through 
Thursday. Confidence is increasing for Spokane to climb to the 2nd
wettest March spot on the climate records. Thursday night the 
ridge starts to nose into the region with dry northerly flow aloft
moving in from the west. The chance of precip will continue in 
the evening across portions of the ID Panhandle and SE WA. Given 
the recent 

*Small streams and creeks will respond to the rainfall and rise 
through Friday across extreme eastern WA and north ID. Ponding of
water over roadways and fields is quite possible as well. Cannot
rule out the continued problems of debris flows, rock slides and
wash outs as the ground remains saturated from all the rain. 

Friday through Tuesday: An upper level ridge builds with dry
northerly flow moving into the region on Friday, for finally a dry
day. Then Friday night into Saturday the flow turns more westerly.
Models are in terrible agreement Saturday through Monday. They all
differ on timing, strength and track of a trough that moves across
the western US. Have trended the chance of precip towards
climatology. Basically have the best chance of showers in the
mountains, and the smallest chance of precip in the Wenatchee
Valley into the Columbia Basin. Oddly enough, the models agree on
a possible ridge for early Tuesday, but am not holding out hope
that they will persist on this agreement. Temperatures will be
right at average for this time of the year...valley temps in the
50s for highs and 30s for lows. /Nisbet

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFs: Low level southerly flow coupled with the leftover 
light moisture will allow for some low level IFR stratus to form 
overnight and into Tuesday morning. This stratus expected to break
up/raise later Tuesday morning. Next incoming weather system 
focuses a southwest to northeast flow of moisture into the area 
tomorrow allowing for clouds to invade the sky from the west and 
southwest and thicken and lower as they do. Some light rain may 
occur during this process Tuesday afternoon with ceilings and 
visibilities possibly MVFR at times but the more intense rainfall 
is expected to occur later Tuesday night. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        49  40  52  41  52  35 /  40  80 100  80  40   0 
Coeur d'Alene  47  37  49  40  51  35 /  60  80 100  80  50  10 
Pullman        49  40  52  42  50  36 /  20  50 100  90  70  20 
Lewiston       55  42  56  44  54  38 /  10  40  80  80  70  10 
Colville       48  37  48  38  52  33 /  80  90 100  50  20   0 
Sandpoint      46  34  47  36  50  33 /  80  90 100  80  40   0 
Kellogg        44  35  46  37  46  35 /  50  70 100  90  80  30 
Moses Lake     57  43  59  41  59  35 /  30  70 100  20  10   0 
Wenatchee      53  39  54  39  56  35 /  40  80  90  20  10   0 
Omak           51  39  52  37  56  34 /  60  80 100  20  10   0 

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$