National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDOTX
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDOTX
Product Timestamp: 2017-03-28 09:44 UTC
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299 FXUS66 KOTX 280944 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 244 AM PDT Tue Mar 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Rain and mountain snow shower chances return this morning and will spread south through the day, with light amounts this afternoon. This comes ahead of another round of widespread moderate precipitation that will arrive Tuesday night and last until early Thursday. Friday will bring a dry break period before more unsettled weather for next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Today and tonight...A few orographically forced showers linger in the panhandle mountains this morning with scattered low level clouds relegated mainly to Idaho. Most of eastern Washington saw clearing skies overnight which allowed most to cool into the low to mid 30s. Given the moist BL, light winds, and clear skies, some fog is possible in the northern valleys early this morning. IR satellite currently shows high clouds streaming in from the northwest, slowly advancing toward the WA/ID border by mid to late morning. Cloud cover will continue to be on the increase through the day in advance of our next wet system later today into Wednesday. Light isentropically forced rain and mountain snow will overspread the region today enhanced by a mid level warm front moving in from the southwest. This precip will spread southward through the day ahead of the main event Tuesday night into Wednesday. Overall amounts will be light for Tuesday's rain with most only seeing a couple hundredths if that, especially in the basin. This system does has an ample fetch of moisture that moves in by Wednesday morning with PWATs around a quarter inch entering the southern zones. /bwilliam Wednesday through Thursday Night: A warm front will spread into the area Wednesday followed by a cold front Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Then Thursday the trough moves through the western US. The atmospheric river will punch inland with widespread rain expected. Have kept our chance of precipitation for Wed near 100%. The latest models are showing a heavier band of rain and mountain snow continuing across portions of southeast WA and the southern ID Panhandle Wednesday night and Thursday. Have adjust the amount of precipitation expected across the region Wed through Thur. The central WA valleys should see a tenth to a quarter of an inch. Then as you head east the amounts will increase. NE WA and N ID will see 0.40-0.60. Then as you head south into SE WA and the southern ID Panhandle they could see 0.75-1.00 of liquid as the rain will persist at times through Thursday. Confidence is increasing for Spokane to climb to the 2nd wettest March spot on the climate records. Thursday night the ridge starts to nose into the region with dry northerly flow aloft moving in from the west. The chance of precip will continue in the evening across portions of the ID Panhandle and SE WA. Given the recent *Small streams and creeks will respond to the rainfall and rise through Friday across extreme eastern WA and north ID. Ponding of water over roadways and fields is quite possible as well. Cannot rule out the continued problems of debris flows, rock slides and wash outs as the ground remains saturated from all the rain. Friday through Tuesday: An upper level ridge builds with dry northerly flow moving into the region on Friday, for finally a dry day. Then Friday night into Saturday the flow turns more westerly. Models are in terrible agreement Saturday through Monday. They all differ on timing, strength and track of a trough that moves across the western US. Have trended the chance of precip towards climatology. Basically have the best chance of showers in the mountains, and the smallest chance of precip in the Wenatchee Valley into the Columbia Basin. Oddly enough, the models agree on a possible ridge for early Tuesday, but am not holding out hope that they will persist on this agreement. Temperatures will be right at average for this time of the year...valley temps in the 50s for highs and 30s for lows. /Nisbet && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFs: Low level southerly flow coupled with the leftover light moisture will allow for some low level IFR stratus to form overnight and into Tuesday morning. This stratus expected to break up/raise later Tuesday morning. Next incoming weather system focuses a southwest to northeast flow of moisture into the area tomorrow allowing for clouds to invade the sky from the west and southwest and thicken and lower as they do. Some light rain may occur during this process Tuesday afternoon with ceilings and visibilities possibly MVFR at times but the more intense rainfall is expected to occur later Tuesday night. /Pelatti && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 49 40 52 41 52 35 / 40 80 100 80 40 0 Coeur d'Alene 47 37 49 40 51 35 / 60 80 100 80 50 10 Pullman 49 40 52 42 50 36 / 20 50 100 90 70 20 Lewiston 55 42 56 44 54 38 / 10 40 80 80 70 10 Colville 48 37 48 38 52 33 / 80 90 100 50 20 0 Sandpoint 46 34 47 36 50 33 / 80 90 100 80 40 0 Kellogg 44 35 46 37 46 35 / 50 70 100 90 80 30 Moses Lake 57 43 59 41 59 35 / 30 70 100 20 10 0 Wenatchee 53 39 54 39 56 35 / 40 80 90 20 10 0 Omak 51 39 52 37 56 34 / 60 80 100 20 10 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$