389 
FXUS63 KLBF 110927
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
327 AM CST Sat Mar 11 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 327 AM CST Sat Mar 11 2017

Closed low over the Northeast CONUS with slight ridging 
into the Western CONUS. Lower 48 in northwest flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CST Sat Mar 11 2017

Models in fair agreement this morning and have used a blend of NAM 
and GFS for the forecast. Enhanced returns over Northern Lincoln 
county with areas of IP falling and freezing as it comes in contact 
with roads. Will carry a pre first period to account for this. 
Upslope flow with warmer air aloft being advected over colder 
surface. Have retained IP through mid morning with area of enhanced 
mid level forcing from North Platte south as it slow drifts to the 
south through the morning before ending. Highs today in the 30s and 
40s as clouds clear through the afternoon. Most of the highs will be 
realized late. Have lowered temperatures over southwest where clouds 
will clear out late. Dry tonight with clear skies and southerly flow 
commencing and increasing through the night. Lows in the low 20s to 
around 30.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 327 AM CST Sat Mar 11 2017

Beginning 12z Sunday.  Northwest flow will provide for 
another shot of light qpf Sunday.  As has been the case with the 
past several weak waves, moisture and the favored lift resides 
mainly above h7, especially the further southwest one goes.  Thus 
will continue to keep the mention at 50% or less for now with the 
greatest chances across our northern and northeastern zones. Thermal 
profiles are warm, owing to modest WAA in advance of the frontal 
zone, thus most of the precipitation is expected to fall as rain. 
However, the front is strong and will rapidly pull modified arctic 
air south during the evening hours.  Any leftover precipitation will 
changeover from north to south.  The front rapidly dives southeast 
with high pressure over the northern/central plains for Monday, but 
a sharp thermal gradient develops as amplified ridging slowly builds 
east from the intermountain west.  A temperature gradient in excess 
of 30 degrees Fahrenheit is certainly possible from west to east 
Monday afternoon.  Highs in the 50s are plausible for our panhandle 
zones and southwest, but 20s may remain across far north central 
Nebraska.  As the upper ridge builds east on Tuesday, the region 
will be under the influence of favorable upper level dynamics with 
the possibility of additional light qpf. The tight temperature 
gradient relaxes slightly as the ridging builds east, but yet 
freezing temperatures are expected through much of the day for our 
far northeast.  This would allow for light snow there, but snow 
changing to rain elsewhere.  Return flow sets up middle of next week 
with the eventual southwest flow as ridging spreads atop the plains. 
Temperatures are likely to warm once again above average across the 
entire cwa, with a return of 60s and 70s Thursday.

The fropa Sunday will provide for breezy northwest winds which would 
pose issues for local resources managing any new fire starts or RX 
burns.  Sufficient lower tropospheric moisture, cloud cover and 
cooling temperatures during the afternoon will keep the possibility 
of RFW low at this time.  Only far southwest Nebraska will see RH 
in the upper 20% range, which is certainly not critical. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1107 PM CST Fri Mar 10 2017

A disturbance passage tonight into Saturday morning will bring
mainly cloudy skies and a few snow showers to western Nebraska.
The best chances for -sn will be across the southern panhandle and
southwest Nebraska overnight into Saturday morning. Prevailing 
ceilings will remain VFR at KVTN, with MVFR possible at KLBF
between 12z-18z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Power
SHORT TERM...Power
LONG TERM...Jacobs
AVIATION...Roberg