609 
FXUS66 KLOX 092234
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 
234 PM PST Thu Mar 9 2017

...Marine discussion updated...

.SYNOPSIS...

A high and offshore flow should persist through next week for 
fair skies and well above normal temperatures...with a cooling 
trend by the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-SUN)

About as quiet a pattern as we can have the next several days and
basically very gradient driven in terms of impacts to
temperatures. Currently gradients are trending onshore but still
2-3mb offshore to the east and 4-5mb offshore to the north so
still a decent offshore component. However, with these trends
continuing tonight and into Friday we should see cooler air
filtering farther into the valleys tomorrow. Additionally, there
is a non-zero threat of some dense fog along the coast,
particularly LA County south that could impact the morning commute
and air traffic into and out of LAX/LGB. It's a pretty low chance
but with gradients near neutral by morning it's definitely not
zero either. 

Not much change Sat (again a possibility of some low stratus and
dense fog at the beaches), but then Sun the ridge pumps up again 
and we get another little offshore burst. So look for a big jump 
in temps Sunday, especially coast/valleys with highs near 90 in 
the warmer valleys and upper 70s and 80s for the coastal zones. 
Not seeing enough upper support for advisory level offshore winds 
but there will be some breezy northeast winds below passes and 
canyons.

.LONG TERM...(MON-THU)

Another pretty warm day Monday, possibly some cooling right at the
beach but either similar or slightly warmer inland. Some
disagreements between the GFS/ECMWF Tue/Wed with the GFS a little
more aggressive with the break down of the ridge but impacts 
would be pretty much zero beyond just the amplitude of the cooling
trend. But then both models agree on the ridge rebuilding late 
next week for yet another warming trend.

&&

.AVIATION...09/22Z

At 18z at KLAX... there was a surface-based inversion. The top of
the inversion was around 2000 feet with a temperature of about 21
degrees Celsius.

Overall... Moderate to high confidence in the current TAFs. Sixty 
percent chance of MVFR VSBY at the coastal sites in Ventura and
Los Angeles Counties after 13z. Otherwise and elsewhere VFR 
conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. 

KLAX... Moderate to high confidence in the current TAF. Sixty 
percent chance of MVFR VSBY 13z-18z. Otherwise and elsewhere VFR 
conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. No east 
winds at or above 7 knots are expected during the forecast period.

KBUR... High confidence in the current TAF. VFR conditions will 
prevail throughout the forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...09/230 PM...

Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds will flow across the outer
waters and the inner waters along the Central Coast through 
Friday night. Wind speeds will periodically drop below advisory 
levels during the forecast period. SCA conditions are likely 
again across much of the outer waters Saturday afternoon through 
Monday.

Patchy morning fog on Friday.

Otherwise and elsewhere... winds and seas will remain below
advisory levels through the weekend.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Saturday for
      zones 645-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...(SUN-THU)
No significant hazards expected.

&&
$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Kj
MARINE...Kj
SYNOPSIS...STu

weather.gov/losangeles