207 
FXUS62 KILM 040623
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
120 AM EST Sat Mar 4 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Winter has returned for the weekend with the threat of freezing
temperatures both Saturday and Sunday mornings respectively. A
warming trend will ensue late this weekend bringing a return of
mild air through early next week as the moderating high pressure
migrates offshore. An approaching cold front may bring rain 
next Wednesday, followed by a cooling and drying trend late next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 900 PM Friday...Re-adjusted min temps slightly with
possible sub 30 degree readings along the northern periphery of
the ILM CWA from Burgaw to Maxton to Hartsville. The Freeze
Warning has been issued highlighting this change. However, no
new areas were added or subtracted from the Freeze Warning
issued this afternoon. The winds staying active all night will
be our saving grace in preventing temperatures from dropping
below our advertised lows especially with sfc dewpoints in the 
teens to low 20s. In essence, we do not expect winds to decouple
but sheltered areas from the wind could see lows drop a degree
or 2 below 30 degrees.  

Previous..................................................
As of 300 PM Friday...A dry cold front accompanied by gusty NW 
winds and a few flat cu is now dropping SE across the forecast 
area. The front will move offshore later this afternoon. The 
reinforcing shot of cold and dry air following this feature will
allow temperatures overnight to drop to around or below 
freezing for nearly all locations. Our SC beaches will likely 
escape freezing temperatures. Have modified current Freeze 
Watch/Warning products to include all of our forecast area, 
aside from the aforementioned SC beaches, in a Freeze Warning 
for overnight. Dewpoints dropping into the upper teens and 
continued mixing should preclude significant frost formation.

Saturday will be dry and sunny with seasonal temperatures as 
Canadian high pressure builds in from the west. A consensus of 
guidance gives us highs only in the mid to upper 50s. This
is about 10 degrees below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Friday...Expect chilly temps overnight Saturday 
as sfc high pressure shifts overhead. This will produce ideal 
radiational cooling conditions with clear skies and calm winds.
Temps will drop below freezing in most spots, except right 
along the coast where ocean temps around 60 will help keep them 
a bit higher. Overall expect temps between 25 and 30 most 
places.

After a chilly start Sun morning, temps will recover but should
still not make it above 60 in a deep NW-N flow aloft and
abundant sunshine. The ridge aloft begins to move east with 
rising heights through early next week, but a dry and cool air 
mass will remain in place through Sun night. The sfc high will 
shift farther east allowing for a more on shore flow to increase
moisture slightly. Therefore, dewpoint temps in the 20s will 
begin to recover into the 30s by Sun night. This will help keep 
overnight lows a bit higher than previous nights, but still 
below normal most places. Guidance is showing temps in the mid
30s

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 333 AM Friday...Primary features include a substantial
warming trend MON-WED followed by a cold frontal late Wednesday
into early Thursday and off the coast. A return to highs in the
70s on tap TUE-WED with 0.10-0.25 inches of rain possible late
Wednesday, and if things hold, a cooling/drying trend beginning
Thursday sometime. The coolest period is Monday morning and
warmest Wednesday afternoon. The breeziest period is late
Tuesday and early Wednesday in warm sector flow. The instability
parameters suggest a slight chance of a TSTM late Tuesday 
through late Wednesday, but no severe weather signatures seen as
yet.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 06z...VFR with clear skies and light NE winds through the 
period as high pressure to our NW moves eastward. 

Extended Outlook...VFR expected throughout the period. The
exception will be during Wed when MVFR/IFR conditions possible 
from scattered shra ahead of a cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 945 PM Friday...SCA remains in effect for all waters thru
6 am Sat. Tightened sfc pg and CAA will keep NW to N winds
active thru Sat daylight morning. Looking at 15 to 20 kt wind 
speeds with occasional to frequent gusts around 25 kt.

Significant seas will peak in the 3 to 6 foot range. The make-up
of the significant seas will include a 2 foot ESE ground swell 
at 8 to 9 second periods. With the remainder coming from wind 
driven waves at 3 to 5 second periods.

Previous..................................................
As of 300 PM Friday...Small Craft Advisory will remain in 
effect from this afternoon through Saturday morning as a cool 
and dry Canadian High Pressure system builds in from the west. 
Winds will kick up a bit from the north this evening as a dry 
cold front moves offshore, with winds gusting up around 25 to 30
kts. Seas will build from present 2 to 3 ft range to 4 to 7 ft 
tonight with the highest seas present around 20 nm out. Winds 
and seas will diminish Saturday as the high pressure moves 
overhead.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Friday...Chilly and dry high pressure over Cape 
Fear Sat night will shift slowly off the Carolina coast by 
Monday. This will allow northerly winds up to 15 kts Sun aftn 
to veer and lighten through Sun night down to 10 kts or less out
of the E-NE. An added push from high building from the north may
cause a spike in northerly winds Sun aftn. This could kick the
sea up to 3 to 4 ft Sun aftn, but otherwise seas will be 3 ft or
less into early next week. 

LONG TERM /MONDAY AND TUESDAY/... 
As of 333 AM Friday...A gradually increase return SE-S flow as 
high pressure navigates east and well offshore. No advisories 
expected this period but SSE gusts to 20 KT possible Tuesday 
afternoon as the sea breeze cranks up just a bit on top of the 
moderate synoptic pressure gradient. Seas mainly 2-3 feet this 
period but by Tuesday night 4-5 feet offshore as long fetch 
distant points SE wave energy this way. Isolated marine showers 
possible Tuesday and Tuesday night, any TSTMS confined likely to
the Gulf Stream, and light sea mist possible Tuesday night.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST Saturday for SCZ017-023-024-032-
     033-039-053-055.
NC...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST Saturday for NCZ087-096-099-
     105>110.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Saturday for AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...DCH/REK    
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...MJC
AVIATION...MBB