101 
FXUS64 KMAF 010909
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
309 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017

.DISCUSSION...

An upper trough is centered over the Northern Plains and a cold 
front is moving southward across West Texas currently north of the 
CWA. Temperatures are in the 30s behind this front, and the front
should begin to move into the area around 12z. High temperatures 
today will mostly be in the 60s.

Conditions tomorrow will be similar to today with high temperatures 
mostly in the 60s.  The upper trough will become centered over the 
Great Lakes on Thursday.  Upper ridging will begin to develop over 
the region on Friday with an upper trough developing south of 
California.  Temperatures on Friday will be similar to the previous 
two days.  The upper trough that was south of California will move 
over the region on Saturday bringing an increase in lift.  This 
trough, along with an increase in low-level moisture, will allow for 
a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms across mainly the 
Lower Trans Pecos southward to the Big Bend area Saturday afternoon. 
Temperatures will warm up into the 70s across western and central 
portions of the CWA on Saturday due to a surface trough developing 
across eastern New Mexico.  

The upper trough moves east of the area on Sunday with temperatures 
warming up into the upper 70s and lower 80s Sunday afternoon.  The 
upper pattern starts to diverge on the models on Monday but it 
appears temperatures will be similar to the previous day with no 
rain.  A weak cold front moves into the area on Tuesday but 
temperatures will not cool by much.  The upper pattern really starts 
to diverge by Wednesday but both the ECMWF and GFS seem to indicate 
a chance of rain across portions of the area.  Have included a 
slight chance of POPs for Wednesday but have little confidence in 
this due to the model discrepancy.  

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     61  35  63  37 /   0   0   0   0 
Carlsbad                       64  32  63  33 /   0   0   0   0 
Dryden                         73  42  67  42 /   0   0   0   0 
Fort Stockton                  67  38  65  41 /   0   0   0   0 
Guadalupe Pass                 57  33  55  34 /   0   0   0   0 
Hobbs                          59  30  61  32 /   0   0   0   0 
Marfa                          65  29  61  29 /   0   0   0   0 
Midland Intl Airport           63  35  64  37 /   0   0   0   0 
Odessa                         63  36  64  37 /   0   0   0   0 
Wink                           66  36  65  37 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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