618 
FXUS61 KBGM 200547
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1247 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cool front will drop south through the region tonight followed
by slightly cooler but still mild air. For Monday through at least
midday Tuesday, high pressure will provide more fair weather and
above normal temperatures. A front will pass late Tuesday into
Tuesday night with some rain showers, followed by even warmer
temperatures Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
630 pm update...Minor adjustments were made to temperature and sky
cover forecast for tonight but otherwise forecast on track with no
changes needed. 


130 pm update... 
Had to adjust hourly and max temperatures up again. warmest areas
such as Elmira, Scranton, and Hazleton around 60 now. Skies
cleared late morning and remain that way. Removed pops for drizzle
this afternoon. Nearest low clouds and the cold front near St
Lawrence River. Fropa slower. Models have lowered pops and qpf for
tonight. For tonight, lowered pops to slight chance and reduced
the area to the far northeast. Drizzle if it occurs will probably
not tick off a hundredth. Unfortunately with the clear skies to
start surface temperatures will still fall to around freezing.
Rome now in the mid 40s with dewpoints lower 30s. Best chance of
any drizzle shortly after midnight now. Small window of time with
shallow moisture under 5k feet and weak forcing.

Monday the surface high moves over the area in the afternoon with
dry and cooler temperatures from western Ontario. Still above
normal with highs in the 40s and upper 30s. Skies become clear. 

Monday night also dry with light winds. The high slows as it moves
to the coast. Lows 15 to 25. High clouds move in ahead of the cold
front after midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 PM Update... 
Frontal system will bring a batch of rain showers late Tuesday
afternoon through evening during an otherwise uneventful period
with above normal temperatures.

Amplified wave is now over Four Corners region out west, after
wreaking havoc in Southern California. However, it will gradually
weaken while carrying across the lower 48. In fact, the main
surface low will eject across the Central to Northern Plains,
right into Canada. By the time the occluded front moves into our
region late Tuesday, the parent low will be distant in far
northern Ontario or perhaps even a piece of Hudson Bay. What is
more, is that the air mass behind the front will be of Pacific
origin. This will take already mild above normal temperatures of
40s-near 50 Tuesday, to mainly 50s-near 60 Wednesday.

Weakening occluding fronts marching all the way across the country
often end up delaying their arrival as the event approaches, so do
not be surprised if most or all of the rain waits until Tuesday
night itself. Chances will be best in Finger Lakes of Central New
York but there is at least some chance for a brief window of rain
showers areawide. Amounts are not looking that much however;
generally one to two tenths of an inch in the northern zones and
mainly less than a tenth of an inch from Twin Tiers-Catskills
southward. Wednesday looks dry and warm with increasing sunshine.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
330 PM Update... 
While more complicated than this, generally speaking a western
trough-eastern ridge pattern will be dominant during this period.
Southwest flow, with occasional embedded waves, will yield
temperatures well above normal. This is particularly the case for
Thursday through early in the weekend, when temperatures will run
15-20 degrees warmer than climatology.

With this pattern setting up, over time more moisture will be
drawn up from the Gulf of Mexico and thus rain chances will become
greater as will potential amounts. A smaller wave Thursday could
produce lighter showers, but sometime around Friday night-Saturday
the GFS-ECMWF-GEMglobal are in agreement on a deeper wetter
system moving through. Behind that, temperatures will probably be
knocked down back at least closer to normal into Sunday but this
is probably only temporary. The overall southwest flow pattern
does not appear likely to back down.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A very dry back door front is sliding southward across the region
this morning. This front may produce a brief period of MVFR cigs
at KITH and KBGM near sunrise, however confidence is low that this
will occur. High pressure will build over the region today resulting
in mostly sunny skies and N/NW winds around 5-10 knots through the
afternoon. After sunset, winds will become light and variable.
Cirrus clouds will start to move into the region from the SW ahead
of the next storm system after 00Z Tuesday.

OUTLOOK...

Tuesday night into Wednesday...Restrictions possible in lower
ceilings and light precipitation with cold front.

Wednesday night and Thursday...VFR.

Thursday night and Friday...possible restrictions with warm
front and rain.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...KAH