021 
FXUS64 KTSA 180545
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1145 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Flight conditions will deteriorate early Saturday morning,
especially at KMLC, KTUL, and KRVS where IFR/LIFR
ceilings/visibilities may develop. MVFR conditions are likely to
develop at the rest of the sites for a few hours Saturday morning.
Conditions should improve later Saturday, with all sites becoming
VFR by mid afternoon. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 813 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017/ 

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Areal coverage of light showers has dwindled considerably over the
last couple of hours, and this trend should continue as what
showers remain move toward the north across northeast Oklahoma and
far northwest Arkansas. Have removed rain chances after midnight
areawide, keeping only slight chances generally north of I-40 and
west of Highway 75 through the rest of the evening. Otherwise, the
going forecast has expectations well in hand, with mostly cloudy
skies likely to persist and low temperatures expected to be well
above normal. Updates already out.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 538 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017/ 

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail until late tonight. A period of MVFR
ceilings will be possible Saturday morning, with conditions
improving to VFR Saturday afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 251 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017/ 

DISCUSSION...
Increase in mid/high clouds ahead of approaching upper low has
held temps down just a bit...but nonetheless it's a pleasant day
out there with readings in the mostly in the 60s. Area radars
depicting a few light showers across the southeast...although any
rainfall will remain spotty. The upper low will move through
southeast OK/western AR later tonight...along with an increase in
low-level moisture and few light showers. 

Upper ridging will quickly build across the region on Sunday in the
wake of the exiting upper low. While cloud cover may hold temps
down a bit...still expect a very mild day...with highs well into
the 70s.

Deep upper trof/cyclone will approach late in the weekend...with a
significant surge of low-level moisture in the deep southerly
flow. Rain chances will increase later Sunday night into early
Monday...with PoPs tapering off by Monday afternoon. ECMWF/GFS
showing about a 6-hour difference in placement of heaviest
rainfall axis...with the GFS being the fastest. Have generally
gone with a compromise for now...which speeds things up a bit over
the previous forecast. Heaviest rainfall should remain focused
south of the area into eastern TX...although parts of southeast OK
could see around 1-1.5". 

Warmer/dry weather will quickly return by Tuesday and continue for
most of next week. Next Thursday is shaping up to be the
warmest (and have the highest fire danger threat)...with a strong
thermal ridge and southwesterly surface flow developing ahead of 
the next cold front. Said cold front should push through Thursday 
night...with more seasonal temps expected for the end of the week.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05