797 
FXUS64 KTSA 121700
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1100 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2017

...UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. North to
northeasterly winds with gusts 20 to 30 kts will continue through
about 00z, with a sharp decrease thereafter. Winds will shift to
a more easterly direction tomorrow morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 936 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2017/ 

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
A much cooler and breezy day will be on tap for eastern Oklahoma
and western Arkansas today behind the overnight cold frontal
passage. The highest wind gusts will be this morning, with a
general decrease in wind magnitude during the afternoon as the low
level wind max shifts to the south of the area. Wind gusts through
the rest of the morning will approach 40 mph, especially across
southeast Oklahoma, but we should not see widespread gusts to that
level. As a result, a Wind Advisory will not be issued at this
time.

Low cloudiness over southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas
will continue to decrease through late morning and into the early
afternoon, with mid to high cloudiness increasing over northeast 
Oklahoma by mid to late afternoon well in advance of the upper low
off the Baja. Sky cover grids have been tweaked some according to
these thoughts.

High temperatures today will remain above normal despite the much
colder air behind the front, really a further testament to how 
anomalous yesterday's temperatures were, as if additional evidence
was required of that. 

Updates already out.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 539 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2017/ 

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Brief MVFR conditions expected this morning across southeast 
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas behind front. Gusty north winds 
will continue today before decreasing by early evening. Otherwise,
increasing high clouds expected tonight in advance of upper storm
system currently off the southern CA coast. 

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 304 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2017/ 

DISCUSSION...
A cold front is currently working to the south across eastern 
Oklahoma and western Arkansas. The front extends from near 
Okmulgee to Fayetteville. The cold front is expected to exit 
the area by mid-morning. The cooler air surging into the area
behind the front will ensure that there will not be a repeat of 
Yesterday's record breaking heat. However, temperatures this 
afternoon are expected to still be above normal for this time
of year. Fire weather will continue to be a concern this afternoon
as northerly winds gust to around 35 mph across portions of the area. 
As dew points drop behind the front, relative humidity values across 
portions of northeast OKlahoma will drop to around 25 percent. Red
Flag criteria are not expected to be achieved this afternoon. However, 
conditions will continue to be monitored closely. 

The next chance for rain showers will come Monday afternoon into Tuesday
night as an upper level low currently off the southern California 
coast moves out of northern Mexico and across the Southern Plains. 
The best chances for rain showers will be south of Interstate 40. 

The remainder of the forecast will be dry with high pressure prevail 
at the surface and aloft. The next chance of showers will be just outside
the scope of this forecast. 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...22