945 
FXUS61 KCLE 101723
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1223 PM EST Fri Feb 10 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build east across the Ohio valley to the 
Carolinas by this afternoon.  A warm front will lift northeast 
across the area by this evening.  Low pressure will move northeast 
to Ohio by Saturday night and to the east coast by Sunday afternoon. 
High pressure will move east across the central Mississippi Valley 
region Monday and extend a ridge northeast across the area. Low 
pressure will dive southeast into the northeastern United States by 
the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
No changes to previous forecast with this update. 

Original Discussion...
Surface high pressure will be the dominating weather feature 
across the forecast area as it moves southeast into the Ohio 
Valley and then to the Carolina coast today. A return south to 
southwest flow will develop today on the back side of the high 
pressure. This will begin the return back to warm air advection 
once again. After a cold start this morning, temperatures should
recover through the day into the upper 30s to around 40 degrees
in the southwest and lower to middle 30s in the northeast. One 
issue that still remains is the lake effect snow flurry/shower 
activity that still remains. As the flow shifts around away from
the lake, this should gradually bring an end to the snow threat
today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure at the surface will be southeast of the area tonight 
allowing warm air advection to take place.  A warm front will lift 
northeast across the area and a swath of some clouds will persist 
with the warm front. Low pressure is progged to move east across 
Ohio into Pennsylvania Saturday and Saturday night.  Showers will 
spread east across the area during this time period with the best 
chance being in the northeast.

Then, as low pressure moves east of the area on Sunday, cold air 
advection will take place in the wake of the low pressure system. 
This wrap around moisture enhanced by the lakes will cause a 
transition to some snow across the eastern half of the forecast area 
Sunday night into Monday morning.  High pressure builds quickly east 
Monday into Monday night and this should bring a change in the mean 
flow to end the threat for lake effect snow once again.

Otherwise, temperatures will warm well into the 40s Sunday and then 
cool back down a bit in the cold air advection to the mid to upper 
20s for lows Sunday night.  A bit of a recovery will take 
place...especially west...with highs in the upper 30s to around 40 
Monday and lower to middle 30s east.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Looks like the next cold front is due on Tuesday. There may actually 
be two fronts. The first front or perhaps a leading trough is 
progged to drop across the area on Tuesday. With little convergence 
and limited moisture, will include a small pop across extreme 
northeast OH and northwest PA where there may be enhanced shore line 
convergence and moisture from Lake Erie. Will go with the idea of a 
second front and/or trough aloft dropping across the area Tuesday 
night. 850 mb temperatures are progged to become cold enough for 
lake effect snow on Wednesday and there will probably be scattered 
snow  showers and snow flurries anywhere under the trough aloft 
Wednesday and probably into Thursday. The ECMWF is much deeper 
with the trough than the GFS and CMC Wedneday into Thursday and the 
forecast will be a compromise for now.

Temperatures should be above normal for Tuesday then slide below 
normal by Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
MVFR ceilings off Lake Erie will persist a while longer this
morning across extreme northeast OH and northwest PA but the 
wind is backing to southwest and the clouds will move away. Mid
level clouds will cross the area this morning into the 
afternoon with a swath of warm advection. There could be a few 
light snow showers form around KERI and points north but 
conditions should remain VFR. The south wind will become gusty 
by this afternoon and low level wind shear will develop tonight 
as the low level jet increases just above the surface layer. 
MVFR clouds will likely develop after midnight tonight as the
lower layers moisten up from the prolonged south wind.

OUTLOOK...Non VFR will continue through Sunday... lingering 
across NE OH/NW PA into Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Actual wind speeds have remained a few knots above guidance values 
early this morning on Lake Erie but we should drop below small craft 
criteria on the western half of the lake by 4 AM or soon after and 
will let the small craft advisory expire as scheduled. The small 
craft advisory will continue on the eastern half of the lake until 
10 AM. 

Winds will back to southwest and south today as high pressure moves 
off to the east. The south winds will become rather brisk especially 
on the east half of the lake but should stay just below small craft 
advisory criteria. The next cold front is expected to drop across 
the lake Saturday night and low pressure is expected to develop on 
the front on Sunday. Winds will veer to the north and northeast on 
Sunday then back to the northwest and increase later Sunday/Sunday 
night. A small craft advisory will be needed again by late in the 
weekend. High pressure will build east on Monday and Tuesday and 
winds will diminish.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lombardy
NEAR TERM...Greenawalt/Lombardy
SHORT TERM...Lombardy
LONG TERM...Kosarik
AVIATION...Kosarik
MARINE...Kosarik