820 
FXUS64 KLZK 072013
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
213 PM CST Tue Feb 7 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Main concerns in this forecast cycle are a temperature forecast, 
much warmer today and Wednesday, then cooler and back closer to 
normal values Thursday to Friday. Then the next chance of rain 
over the weekend. 

Earlier rain has pushed out of AR, and clouds have thinned and 
cleared from west to east. Only some patchy mid to high clouds 
are now streaming into AR. The cold front was making slow progress
east and was located just east of Mt Home, to near RUE, to 
southwest of DEQ. A northwest wind, drier and cooler conditions 
were noted behind the front. The front will continue to make 
progress east this afternoon to evening and should clear the state
tonight. The upper pattern was northwest, as the low pressure 
trough has pushed past AR the MS valley. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday Night

The front will continue to push east tonight, and bring a cooler
and drier airmass to the region. Lows tonight will be mainly 40s
with partly to mostly clear skies. As the surface high pressure
builds into AR, winds will become north, to northeast, then east 
to southeast into Wednesday. Some mid to high clouds will be seen 
on Wednesday, then a more significant cold front will gradually 
move through AR, and again switch wind back to the northwest to 
north, and much cooler temperatures. Thursday and Friday, weather 
conditions will be dry, with closer to normal values. Highs in the
50s while lows in the 30s. 

&&

.LONG TERM...Friday Through Tuesday

Northwest flow aloft will be seen at the start of the long term 
period...with SFC high pressure moving across the region. This SFC 
high will shift east by late Fri...with SRLY flow returning to the 
state. This will allow temps to start to rebound once again...with 
highs back above normal starting Fri afternoon. 

Moisture levels will also be on the rise...and by Sat...some small 
chances for rain will be in the forecast as SRLY flow 
intensifies...with flow aloft becoming SW. However...rain amounts 
should be light initially...at least until a cold front pushes 
through the state late Sun and through Mon. This front will bring 
chances for more widespread SHRA and some TSRA. 

Up through Mon...the overall agreement in the med range model 
solutions has been fairly good...but the last day of the forecast 
the solutions diverge. The latest 12Z ECMWF pushes the front 
through the state...with the forecast ending dry next Tue. 
However...the GFS has a new storm system to the SW...with moisture 
and forcing lifting into the state from the south. Will go with a 
blend for now...with some chances of rainfall forecast at this 
time...but keep POPs reasonably low given the uncertainty this far 
out in time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     46  62  30  45 /  10   0   0   0 
Camden AR         52  76  40  58 /  10   0   0   0 
Harrison AR       42  61  26  46 /   0   0   0   0 
Hot Springs AR    48  72  37  54 /  10   0   0   0 
Little Rock   AR  49  71  37  49 /  10   0   0   0 
Monticello AR     53  75  40  55 /  10   0  10   0 
Mount Ida AR      47  73  36  55 /   0   0   0   0 
Mountain Home AR  43  60  27  46 /   0   0   0   0 
Newport AR        47  61  31  44 /  10   0   0   0 
Pine Bluff AR     51  72  38  51 /  10   0  10   0 
Russellville AR   47  70  34  51 /   0   0   0   0 
Searcy AR         48  66  33  47 /  10   0   0   0 
Stuttgart AR      51  70  36  47 /  10   0  10   0 
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...59 / Long Term...62