105 
FXUS63 KLSX 300524
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1124 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 231 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2017

The persistent NW flow pattern aloft will continue tonight and
tomorrow. Disturbances moving through the flow will bring periods of
increased clouds and perhaps isolated/scattered flurries or
sprinkles, but any lingering precipitation across the eastern CWA
will quickly shift eastward tonight as the upper trough shifts
eastward. 

Occasionally gusty northwest winds will diminish tonight and then
turn southwesterly tomorrow due to the passage of a weak surface
ridge overnight. Highs tomorrow should be around 10 degrees warmer
than they were today.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM...  (Monday Night through Next Sunday)
Issued at 231 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2017

Not a lot of changes from the prev forecast and not a lot to talk
about.  Much of the forecast period is dry, except for some slight
chance PoPs Thurs afternoon/night with the potential for some
overrunning precip. However, the GFS is a slow outlier building the
sfc ridge into the region and wud expect the precip to remain
further south. 

As mentioned in prev discussions, there is a large difference in mdl
solns for late this week thru the weekend. Can not really say that
one model is an outlier as that would imply that there are some in
agreement. However, the GEM is a stronger outlier with a much deeper
trof and sfc wave. The ECMWF continues to be much drier and weaker
soln thru this period. Have tried to trend the forecast twd the GFS
as a middle ground for now. Depending on how this system evolves,
the CWA may end up with another mixed precip event with SN to the
north with mixed to RA in the south. Will need to continue to
monitor this system. 

As for temps, Tues still appears to be somewhat warm, but have
trended twd the cooler guidance with CAA across the CWA and clouds
moving into the region. The remainder of the forecast period is
expected to be aob seasonal average.

Tilly

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1119 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2017

Expect MVFR ceilings over northern Missouri and Iowa to spread
southeast tonight ahead of a weak warm front. MVFR ceilings will
overspread the area from the north and west through 12-15Z. Should
see the MVFR lift to a VFR deck before moving out of the area from
late morning through mid afternoon. VFR conditions are expected to
prevail thereafter.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: 

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at Lambert through the
remainder of the night...with MVFR ceilings around 2000 ft moving
in from the west-northwest between 12Z and 15Z. MVFR will likely
prevail for a few hours from the mid morning to early afternoon
with ceilings lifting and scattering by mid afternoon. VFR flight
conditions are expected to prevail after the ceilings scatter in
the afternoon.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX