704 
FXUS63 KILX 260312
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
912 PM CST Wed Jan 25 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 912 PM CST Wed Jan 25 2017

Current forecast looks ok, but some cleaning up of the pops/wx
needed to be done with the grids. Light precip is occurring little
further south than previous forecast, so have made some
adjustments with the light sprinkles or flurries early in the
forecast. Other fields in the forecast look fine. Update will be
our shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CST Wed Jan 25 2017

Cloudy skies will continue to dominate through the overnight hours
as the storm system continues to move through the Midwest and Great
Lakes regions. Some light rain this afternoon will transition to
mostly snow along and north of I-74 on the back end of the exiting
storm system...slowly spreading southward after sunset and into the
evening hours. Some light accumulations are possible...up to an inch
north of a line from Havana to Bloomington through tomorrow morning.
Other locations may see a dusting as well...south to a Springfield
to Champaign line. Keeping the cloud cover in place through the
overnight hours...with and without the precip...will keep overnight
lows just below freezing in most locations...and into the lower 30s
south of I-70.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CST Wed Jan 25 2017

The extended forecast will be dominated by an expansive trough
entrenched across the eastern CONUS, providing us with NW upper
level flow, reinforcing pushes of colder air, and periodic light
snow or flurries as shortwave rotate around the west side of the
trough. We have kept the trend of light flurries across at least the
I-74 corridor and north, due to the proximity to the path of
shortwaves in the NW flow. Per the 00Z ECMWF and 12Z GFS, the better
chance for some measurable snow looks to be Sunday when the
strongest shortwave surges into Illinois along with a cold pool. The
Canadian delays that wave, and shows it a bit weather and farther
NE. Regardless, we have slight chance PoPs in all of central and SE
Illinois starting later Saturday night and continuing on Sunday. 

Air temps for Thur night through Sunday will decrease to at or below
normal for highs, and around normal lows. 

Some warming is expected on Monday as ridging at the surface and
aloft provide a break from the precip chances, and a brief chance
for some sunshine. Southerly flow will become established late
Monday when the surface ridge axis shifts east of Illinois and a low
moving into the Great Lakes brings a cold front toward western IL.
The cold front is projected to pass late Monday night into
Tuesday, shifting surface winds to the west. However, Tuesday high
temps look to still climb at or slightly above Mondays readings. A
secondary front will push through late Tuesday and Tuesday night,
ushering in a colder airmass with near normal temps for Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 544 PM CST Wed Jan 25 2017

MVFR cigs at PIA and BMI with VFR cigs at SPI/DEC/CMI. These
conditions will continue at all sites for next several hours but
then conditions will get worse with MVFR cigs moving over
SPI/DEC/CMI in 2-3 hrs this evening while PIA and BMI will see
cigs decrease into lower MVFR until close to midnight. Then cigs
at these three sites will become IFR as more predominate precip
arrives in the form or rain and then mix and then changing to all
snow. Believe any precip at the other three sites will be light
and more scattered, so just have VCSH for them after midnight and
thru morning hours. When precip ends/moves past the sites, cigs
should rise one category and then remain there the rest of the TAF
period. Winds will be westerly through the period with stronger
gusts this evening, then decreasing some overnight and tomorrow as
the gradient loosens.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Auten