898 
FXUS65 KFGZ 302204
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
304 PM MST Wed Nov 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather with warming temperatures can be expected
through Thursday. A weather disturbance will bring a slight
chance of showers Thursday night and Friday. Dry and warmer
weather is expected this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Short wave ridging is moving over the region today
which has resulted in mostly clear skies and calm weather with
temperatures slightly warmer than yesterday. The warming will
continue through Thursday as northwest flow backs to the west
ahead of a trough deepening over the Intermountain West. The
trough is forecast to deepen further into the southwest,
potentially closing off somewhere over or just south of Arizona.
Limited moisture will keep precipitation chances rather low with
this system, and the best chances look to favor areas from
Flagstaff east to the New Mexico border. It will deliver
additional cold air to the state with temperatures Friday staying
about 10 degrees below average. 

As the low proceeds south of Arizona and high pressure begins to
build in from the northwest, expect a period of breezy northeast
winds Friday night through Saturday.

Forecast model solutions continue to lean toward another trough
deepening over the western States from the early to middle part of
next week. This would deliver another round of cold weather and a
return of rain and snow showers. Model solutions still differ on
the details keeping our confidence rather low (particularly in
timing). Keep an eye on future forecasts as details evolve.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z forecast...VFR conditions are forecast
across northern Arizona for the next 24 hours with high clouds and
generally light winds. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCT
AVIATION...MAS


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff