883 
FXUS64 KLIX 182151
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
351 PM CST Fri Nov 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...
The upper level ridge that was over the area is quickly
progressing east today while a trough is moving across the
central/high plains. A strong cold front on the leading edge of
the trough is currently moving across north Louisiana Friday and
should entering the northwestern CWA between sunset and 03z.
Shouldn't take but about 6 hours for the front to move completely
across the forecast area. In terms of rain, radar trends over the
last few hours shows some filling in of the line as it moved from
TX into LA. The HRRR and even medium range models shows this
holding together through the northwestern third of the CWA before
breaking up and diminishing in coverage from there southeastward.
The latest forecast pops were adjusted to attempt to show this
with near 50% chance of rain NW of BTR down to 20-30% along the LA
coast.

.LONG TERM...
Post frontal air mass will be the coldest temperatures the region
has seen since last spring. Highs over the weekend will barely reach
into the lower 60s. Elevated winds behind the front will keep temps
from falling too much Saturday night, but still likely to see mid to
upper 30s in the northern half of the CWA (40-50 south). Monday
morning will be the coldest and dropped forecast lows a couple more
degrees from the previous forecast. MAV/MET guidance looks to better
capture the clear/calm conditions compared to blended models, so
thinking lows in the lower to mid 30s along and north of I-12 in LA
and I-10 in MS with a handful of locations dropping to freezing or
even just below 30. Widespread frost is expected in those areas.

Temperatures will then begin to moderate Monday and Tuesday as a
weak upper ridge slides across the northern Gulf Coast.  Following
on its heels, a more southerly oriented trough will pass across the
Rockies Tuesday and shoot off to the northeast Wednesday. This will
bring another front to the forecast area but with the upper trough
moving away from the area then, the front will likely washout as it
gets here. Some rain expected but should be fairly weak convection
an decreasing in coverage as the boundary moves in. 

Meffer 
&&

.AVIATION...
mostly VFR conditions are expected through Saturday. The exception
will be as a convective band of isolated to scattered SHRA and a few
TSRA, associated with a strong cold front, move through southeast LA
and south MS from northwest to southeast between 03z and 11z
Saturday. Isolated SHRA could also develop late this afternoon and
early this evening in advance of the main band. Some lower MVFR
category conditions due to CIGS and/or VSBY may impact the
terminals, so have indicated VCSH or PROB30 -SHRA. Stronger and
gusty northwest to north winds will follow cold frontal passage late
tonight into Saturday. 22/TD 

&&

.MARINE... 
Strong cold front is expected to move through Lakes Maurepas and
Pontchartrain between 2 and 3 am tonight and the sounds and coastal
waters between 3 am and 9 am Saturday. Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
conditions with occasional gusts to near gale force are expected to
develop fairly quickly behind the front, so the timing of the start
of SCA headline has been set accordingly. SCA conditions are then to
continue through at least mid morning on Sunday as colder air and
high pressure build into the region. The exception is Lakes
Pontchartrain and Maurepas where there should be a drop below SCA
Saturday afternoon before winds and waves pick back up in the
evening and overnight hours Saturday night. 

High pressure will build in closer to the coast Sunday afternoon,
then gradually move east Monday into Tuesday. Winds and seas are
expected to subside from late Sunday morning through Monday. Another
weaker cold front is expected to move through the marine area
Wednesday night shifting winds from southerly back to northerly
again, but staying below SCA criteria. 22/TD

&&

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: Blue
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: Drought Monitoring, Enhanced Fire Danger Risk Saturday, 
       and Small Craft Advisory late tonight through Sunday morning. 
                                       	        
Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend 
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event. 
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support. 
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  47  61  34  63 /  50   0   0   0 
BTR  50  62  35  62 /  50   0   0   0 
ASD  53  63  37  63 /  40   0   0   0 
MSY  56  62  45  62 /  40   0   0   0 
GPT  56  65  38  62 /  40  10   0   0 
PQL  55  65  36  63 /  40  10   0   0 

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to noon CST Sunday for 
     GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to noon CST Saturday for GMZ530.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to noon CST Sunday for 
     GMZ534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$