744 
FXUS64 KLIX 181003
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
403 AM CST Fri Nov 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...
Patchy fog has developed over some portions of the area this
morning. This fog should mix out again this morning fairly quick
by 8 or 9 AM. The big weather maker for today will be a large
trough that is expected to push a cold front through the area
tonight. We will still be warm today with little to no rainfall
expected through most of the day. The front gets here tonight and
with limited moisture we do not expect much in the way of
rainfall. Coverage will be greatest in western portions of the
CWA, but on a decreasing trend as the front progresses due to
minimal deep layer moisture. Model soundings show precip water
struggling to even reaching 1 inch. So only sight chance of rain
tonight, but the bigger impact will come this weekend with much
cooler temperatures. 13/MH

.LONG TERM...
Behind the front on Saturday expect much cooler temperatures and
strong gusty winds. Winds up to 20 to 30 mph can be expected on
Saturday. Day time highs will struggle to go much above 60
degrees on both Saturday and Sunday. Sunday and Monday mornings
will be quite chilly with lows in the lower to mid 30s along and
north of I-12 in LA and I-10 in MS. Widespread frost is expected
in those areas. A few locations in coastal/sw Mississippi could
touch the freezing mark, most likely on Monday morning when the
post frontal surface ridge in oriented just northeast of the area.
Temperatures moderate by early next week as the bulk of that cold
air moves east and high pressure moves across the Gulf Coast. The
next system looks to move into the picture by mid week. Both the
GFS and Euro show a front moving towards the area on Wednesday.
For now this looks like it could produce a little bit more of a
rain threat, and we need it to combat the drought conditions over
much of the southeast United States. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
Radiational dense fog in patches mainly along the Pearl River Valley
in at fog prone KHUM this morning should burn off by 14Z. VFR
through the daylight hours then perhaps a marine layer of MVFR cloud
bases towards 06Z ahead of strong cold front, which should move the
terminals generally between 08Z and 12Z from west to east. 24/RR

&&

.MARINE...
Light onshore flow this morning is expected to become a little
more moderate in response to approaching cold front this evening.
Frontal passage through the coastal waters expected to be prior to
sunrise west of the MS River and early Sat morning east, with
strong northerly winds and frequent higher gusts to develop under
strong cold air advection over relatively warm waters for much of
the day Saturday. Small craft advisories will likely be posted
later today or this evening prior to front's arrival. High
pressure moderates rather quickly through Tuesday with another
system moving through the Plains States to bring another frontal
passage to the north gulf Wed night. 24/RR

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Blue
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: Drought Monitoring       
                                       	        
Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend 
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event. 
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support. 
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  79  47  61  35 /  10  40   0   0 
BTR  79  50  62  36 /  10  40   0   0 
ASD  78  52  63  36 /  10  30   0   0 
MSY  78  55  62  45 /  10  30   0   0 
GPT  76  56  65  37 /  10  30  10   0 
PQL  79  54  65  35 /  10  30  10   0 

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$