285 
FXUS62 KMHX 300851
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
451 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level low pressure will remain quasi-stationary across the
Ohio River Valley today then move North Saturday and Northeast
towards New England Sunday pushing a cold front across the area
Sunday night. The front will stall off of the coast early next
week while high pressure builds in from the north. Hurricane
Matthew is forecast to move north of the Bahamas and off the
Southeast coast mid to late next week. Please see the latest
forecasts from the National Hurricane Center for the latest on
Hurricane Matthew.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 345 AM Friday...The vertically stacked low pressure system
centered over KY will remain nearly stationary today. Meanwhile a
weak surface low resides across the western Carolina piedmont with
a stationary front extending east across eastern NC and a cold
front extending south across SC and the Southeast coast. With
calm winds and abundant low level moisture early this morning
seeing areas of fog across the region, especially across interior
and northern sections, north of where the stationary front is
analyzed. The fog is expected to dissipate by mid morning. The
surface pattern shifts ever so slightly north and east today but
we will remain under deep moist southerly flow across eastern NC
with PW values around 1.5-1.8 inches. A weak vort max is rotating
through the upper low and currently bringing enhanced showers
across eastern SC and southeast NC and expect a better chance of
showers and thunderstorms to lift north across the area through
the day today; moving into southwest sections this morning and
into northeast sections this afternoon. Highs expected in the low
to mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
As of 400 AM Friday...The upper low over KY will very slowly drift
north tonight while the surface low lifts north into VA with the
trailing cold front approaching the area. Expect the deeper
moisture to shift to the coast with drier air aloft, as noted in
WV satellite imagery, moving into western sections leading to
a better chance of showers across the eastern half of the CWA
overnight. Light winds and abundant low level moisture will lead
to a good chance of fog across the region again tonight. Lows
expected in the mid to upper 60s well inland to mid 70s along the
coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 315 AM Friday... 
Sat...The quasi-stationary upper low will begin to move north
Saturday but still produce a deep cyclonic flow across the area.
The surface cold front will remain just to the west with continued
moist/unstable southerly flow ahead of it across the region
especially along the coast. Will continue chc pops coast tapering
to slight chc deep inland. Will remain warm with srly flow
producing highs in the low to poss mid 80s.

Sunday through Mon...As the upper low begins to lift NE Sunday
the sfc low/front slowly dissipates as it approaches Sun and
drifts off the coast and stalls Mon. Models cont to keep better
moisture along and East of the coast so cont low chc pops cst
Sunday tapering to slight chc Monday...inland areas will be mainly
dry. Not much change to temps with lows cont in the 60s inland to
low 70s cst with highs upr 70s to lower 80s.

Tue through Wed...High pres will gradually build in from the N
Tue and slide E Wed. This will keep most areas dry Tue with small
pop cst. On wed increasing onshore flow will lead to a little
better chc of showers across the region. Little cooler with more
pronounced NNE flow Tue and Wed with highs mainly 70s to poss
around 80 S.

Thursday and Friday...Forecast will be dependent on track of
Hurricane Matthew. Will increase rain chances especially coast and
keep cool high temps in the 70s in NE flow. Please see the latest
forecasts from the National Hurricane Center for the latest on
Hurricane Matthew. 

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term /through tonight/... 
As of 2 AM Friday...Areas of LIFR fog at most terminals this
morning expected to burn off between 13-15Z. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms bringing brief periods of sub-VFR conditions
will lift north across routes through the day with better chances
across southwest sections this morning, moving to northeast
sections this afternoon. Better showers chances will reside across
coastal sections tonight. Could see areas of fog develop again
tonight with abundant low level moisture and light winds
persisting.

Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/... 
As of 315 AM Friday...Scattered shra and a few tsra cont Sat with
a period of sub VFR conditions possible. Drier air will work in
from the W Sunday into Tuesday with decreasing chc of shra and
mainly VFR...there will be threat of some late night and early
morning fog and stratus with light winds this weekend into early
next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through tonight/... 
As of 400 AM Friday...A weak frontal boundary bisecting the waters
will slowly lift north today while a weak cold front approaches
from the W. Generally seeing E/SE winds below 10 KT north of the
boundary and S winds around 5-10 KT to the south. Expect to see
winds become S across all waters this afternoon and increase to
around 10-15 KT through tonight as gradients tighten some ahead
of the cold front. Wavewatch and NWPS a bit underdone with seas
across the northern waters as it does not seem to have been
capturing stronger winds/swells off the mid-Atlantic coast over
the past day or so and buoys off Duck and Oregon Inlet reporting
seas to around 6 FT. Therefore have raised a SCA for the waters
north of Cape Hatteras through this afternoon, after which seas
are expected to subside to around 3-5 FT tonight. South of
Hatteras seas are expected to remain around 2 to 4 FT with up to 5
FT across the outer waters this afternoon and tonight coincided to
slightly stronger southerly flow.

Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 315 AM
Friday...Weak low pres/cold front W of the region Sat will lead to
mainly S flow aob 15 kts. The low/front will slowly slide E toward
the coast Sunday then move offshore by Monday. Light mostly S
winds Sunday will become NE Mon but remain weak. The ne/E flow is
forecast to increase to 10 to 15 KT Monday and 15 to 20 KT
Tuesday. Seas thru the period will be mainly 2 to 4 feet through
Monday then increase to 3 to 5 FT Tuesday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EDT this 
     evening for AMZ150-152.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...RF/JME
AVIATION...RF/JME/SK
MARINE...RF/JME/SK